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US DATA: ADP Sees Large Downward Revision, Still A Large Beat Back In Oct

US DATA
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  • ADP employment was broadly as expected in November at 146k (cons 150k).
  • It followed a solid downward revision to 184k from what was 233k, attributed by ADP to the latest QECEW data. “Our annual benchmarking of the full data series will occur with the January 2025 NER release.”
  • That’s still a huge overshoot of the -28k seen for private sector payrolls in October, although the latter could be subject to large revisions this coming Friday considering October saw the lowest initial response rate since 1991.
  • The press release notes a healthy overall month for jobs growth but a mixed breakdown. “Manufacturing [-26k] was the weakest we've seen since spring. Financial services and leisure and hospitality were also soft."
  • Large firms again lead gains, with those with 500+ employees rising 120k in Nov after 118k. All other sized firms increased just 25k in Nov after 65k in Oct.
  • Note that the pay insights section points to some rare acceleration: “Year-over-year pay gains for job-stayers edged up for the first time in 25 months, to 4.8 percent. For jobchangers, pay gains rose to 7.2 percent.”
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  • ADP employment was broadly as expected in November at 146k (cons 150k).
  • It followed a solid downward revision to 184k from what was 233k, attributed by ADP to the latest QECEW data. “Our annual benchmarking of the full data series will occur with the January 2025 NER release.”
  • That’s still a huge overshoot of the -28k seen for private sector payrolls in October, although the latter could be subject to large revisions this coming Friday considering October saw the lowest initial response rate since 1991.
  • The press release notes a healthy overall month for jobs growth but a mixed breakdown. “Manufacturing [-26k] was the weakest we've seen since spring. Financial services and leisure and hospitality were also soft."
  • Large firms again lead gains, with those with 500+ employees rising 120k in Nov after 118k. All other sized firms increased just 25k in Nov after 65k in Oct.
  • Note that the pay insights section points to some rare acceleration: “Year-over-year pay gains for job-stayers edged up for the first time in 25 months, to 4.8 percent. For jobchangers, pay gains rose to 7.2 percent.”