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US DATA: Another Dip In The Share Of States Triggering Sahm Rule

US DATA
USGlobalEM BulletFixed Income BulletsData BulletBulletMarketsEmerging Market NewsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionNorth America
  • Released today at 1000ET, the state household survey data offered further pushback on previous attention on the climb in the share of states that had triggered the Sahm rule.
  • Another state no longer triggered the rule, which meant the share fell to 28% as it continues to decline following its quick climbed to circa 40% in late 2023.
  • We regularly note that there are issues with looking at this metric beyond a national level, not least as different states receive differing levels of immigration with differing impacts on labor supply, but it nevertheless receives attention.  
  • You can see how this mostly labor supply driven increase in the unemployment rate has differed to prior recessions in the chart below.
  • In itself, it lends support to the point that whilst the national unemployment rate has triggered the Sahm rule in both July and August (with the 4.22% in Aug worth 0.54pp on the Sahm rule), its increase has been relatively mild compared to prior recessions.
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  • Released today at 1000ET, the state household survey data offered further pushback on previous attention on the climb in the share of states that had triggered the Sahm rule.
  • Another state no longer triggered the rule, which meant the share fell to 28% as it continues to decline following its quick climbed to circa 40% in late 2023.
  • We regularly note that there are issues with looking at this metric beyond a national level, not least as different states receive differing levels of immigration with differing impacts on labor supply, but it nevertheless receives attention.  
  • You can see how this mostly labor supply driven increase in the unemployment rate has differed to prior recessions in the chart below.
  • In itself, it lends support to the point that whilst the national unemployment rate has triggered the Sahm rule in both July and August (with the 4.22% in Aug worth 0.54pp on the Sahm rule), its increase has been relatively mild compared to prior recessions.