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US DATA: Atlanta Fed GDPNow Trimmed To 2.8% In Final Q3 Estimate

US DATA
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  • The final Atlanta GDPNow estimate is for Q3 real GDP growth of 2.8% annualized in tomorrow’s advance release, lowered from the 3.3% on Oct 25. Bloomberg consensus looks for 3.0%.
  • It points to only limited moderation from a strong 3.0% in Q2 that had come from strong domestic demand growth of 2.8pps as a stock build (1.1pp) was mostly offset by a heavy net trade drag (-0.9pp).
  • As flagged after today’s advance trade report, net exports have driven the bulk of the latest downward revision on strong import growth. Net exports is seen dragging 0.4pps from GDP growth vs the 0.04pp with Friday’s estimate although that’s a smaller drag than the -0.9pp from Q2.
  • Consumer spending meanwhile is seen with a stronger contribution in Q3 (2.4pp vs the 1.9pp in Q2) for its strongest quarter since 1Q23. Instead, the main sequential moderation is seen coming from change in inventories dragging -0.1pp after the +1.1pp in Q2. 
Source: Atlanta Fed
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  • The final Atlanta GDPNow estimate is for Q3 real GDP growth of 2.8% annualized in tomorrow’s advance release, lowered from the 3.3% on Oct 25. Bloomberg consensus looks for 3.0%.
  • It points to only limited moderation from a strong 3.0% in Q2 that had come from strong domestic demand growth of 2.8pps as a stock build (1.1pp) was mostly offset by a heavy net trade drag (-0.9pp).
  • As flagged after today’s advance trade report, net exports have driven the bulk of the latest downward revision on strong import growth. Net exports is seen dragging 0.4pps from GDP growth vs the 0.04pp with Friday’s estimate although that’s a smaller drag than the -0.9pp from Q2.
  • Consumer spending meanwhile is seen with a stronger contribution in Q3 (2.4pp vs the 1.9pp in Q2) for its strongest quarter since 1Q23. Instead, the main sequential moderation is seen coming from change in inventories dragging -0.1pp after the +1.1pp in Q2. 
Source: Atlanta Fed