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US DATA: Away From Aircraft Noise, Durable Goods Disappoint

US DATA
  • Core durable goods orders were softer than expected in preliminary July data, falling -0.1% M/M (cons 0.1) after a downward revised 0.5% (initial 0.9%). 
  • The underlying trends are weak, the year-ago rate was just 0.7% Y/Y (albeit the strongest pace since March – SA data to adjust for trading day differences) and 3m/3m orders slipped to -1.9% annualized. 
  • A cautionary word on overall orders, which were much stronger than expected as they jumped 9.9% (cons 4.9) after -6.9% (initial -6.7%). 
  • Recall that nondefense aircraft orders plunged to a rare negative reading in June owing to what we thought at the time was linked to a Boeing cancellation. Indeed, nondefense aircraft orders swung to $23.4bn in July from -$4.2bn in June and $15.6bn in May, which meant that total transportation orders swung from -21% M/M to 35% M/M in July. 
  • Core shipments meanwhile were more notably weaker than expected, -0.4% M/M (cons 0.2) after a downward revised 0.0% (initial 0.2).
  • It left core shipments at -0.1% Y/Y and -2.7% annualized on a 3m/3m basis. 

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