October 30, 2024 12:54 GMT
US DATA: Core PCE Inflation Beat Suggests Jul-Aug Upward Revisions
US DATA
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- Core PCE inflation was stronger than expected in the Q3 advance, rising 2.16% annualized for a still large moderation from the 2.8% in Q2.
- Whilst only just rounding up from consensus of 2.1 (and a smaller beat than the rounded 2.2 on screens would imply), as we noted beforehand latest analyst estimates for September had looked more in keeping with a 2.0 print for Q3.
- That would imply a 0.35% M/M increase for Sept in tomorrow’s monthly report but we think it’s much more likely that upward revisions come further back in the quarter, with September closer to the 0.25/0.26% M/M estimates we have seen averaged since CPI/PPI/import price releases.
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