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US DATA: Core PCE Inflation Beat Suggests Jul-Aug Upward Revisions

US DATA
USGlobalEM BulletFixed Income BulletsData BulletBulletMarketsEmerging Market NewsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionNorth America
  • Core PCE inflation was stronger than expected in the Q3 advance, rising 2.16% annualized for a still large moderation from the 2.8% in Q2.  
  • Whilst only just rounding up from consensus of 2.1 (and a smaller beat than the rounded 2.2 on screens would imply), as we noted beforehand latest analyst estimates for September had looked more in keeping with a 2.0 print for Q3.
  • That would imply a 0.35% M/M increase for Sept in tomorrow’s monthly report but we think it’s much more likely that upward revisions come further back in the quarter, with September closer to the 0.25/0.26% M/M estimates we have seen averaged since CPI/PPI/import price releases. 
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  • Core PCE inflation was stronger than expected in the Q3 advance, rising 2.16% annualized for a still large moderation from the 2.8% in Q2.  
  • Whilst only just rounding up from consensus of 2.1 (and a smaller beat than the rounded 2.2 on screens would imply), as we noted beforehand latest analyst estimates for September had looked more in keeping with a 2.0 print for Q3.
  • That would imply a 0.35% M/M increase for Sept in tomorrow’s monthly report but we think it’s much more likely that upward revisions come further back in the quarter, with September closer to the 0.25/0.26% M/M estimates we have seen averaged since CPI/PPI/import price releases.