US DATA
October's Empire State manufacturing survey was extraordinarily strong, printing 31.2 vs 0.0 expected and -11.9 prior.
- That reading is the highest since December 2021, and had very strong internals: new orders soared 38 poinst to 28.0, with shipments up 35 points to 32.5. Labor market conditions were "stable" (number of employees edging down, average workweek edging up). This is a figure consistent witan ISM Manufacturing survey above 60, though of course that seems unlikely given it's recently been stuck in contractionary (<50) territory.
- Survey responses were collected between November 4 and November 12 - it's unclear whether the index result is a reflection of the election results (which were known by Nov 6) somehow upwardly impacted the survey responses but there's no evidence of that having happened for previous November surveys.
- Price increases were "steady and modest" per the report, with prices paid at 27.8 (29.0 prior) and received at 12.4 (12.8 prior).
- As for the outlook, "Firms remained optimistic that conditions would continue to improve in the months ahead. After reaching a multi-year high last month, the index
for future business activity edged down six points to a still-high reading of 33.2, with half of respondents expecting conditions to improve over the next six months. Employment is expected to grow moderately. Capital spending plans continued to expand."
214 words