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Below are the updated Federal Reserve projections of major economic 
indicators published Wednesday: 
Release for: December 2017
Source: U.S. Federal Reserve
Data in Percent
                                    Median (1)
                          2017     2018     2019     2020    Longer Run  
                                                                          
Change in real GDP         2.5      2.5      2.1      2.0        1.8
September Projection       2.4      2.1      2.0      1.8        1.8       
                                                                          
--                                                                        
                                                                          
Unemployment rate          4.1      3.9      3.9      4.0        4.6       
September Projection       4.3      4.1      4.1      4.2        4.6        
                                                                          
--                                                                        
                                                                          
PCE inflation              1.7      1.9      2.0      2.0        2.0       
September Projection       1.6      1.9      2.0      2.0        2.0       
                                                                          
--                                                                        
                                                                          
Core PCE inflation         1.5      1.9      2.0      2.0         NA        
September Projection       1.5      1.9      2.0      2.0         NA        
                                                                          
--                                                                        
                                                                          
Memo: Projected Appropriate Policy Path                                   
                                                                          
Federal Funds Rate         1.4      2.1      2.7      3.1        2.8       
September Projection       1.4      2.1      2.7      2.9        2.8       
                                                                           
                                                                           
                                Central Tendency (2)                        
                                                                            
                                                                            
                          2017     2018     2019      2020  Longer Run  
                                                                          
Change in real GDP     2.4-2.5  2.2-2.6  1.9-2.3   1.7-2.0     1.8-1.9    
September Projection   2.2-2.5  2.0-2.3  1.7-2.1   1.6-2.0     1.8-2.0    
                                                                          
--                                                                        
                                                                          
Unemployment rate        4.1    3.7-4.0  3.6-4.0   3.6-4.2     4.4-4.7
September Projection   4.2-4.2  4.0-4.2  3.9-4.4   4.0-4.5     4.5-4.8    
                                                                          
--                                                                        
                                                                          
PCE inflation          1.6-1.7  1.7-1.9    2.0     2.0-2.1       2.0    
September Projection   1.5-1.6  1.8-2.0    2.0     2.0-2.1       2.0       
                                                                         
--                                                                        
                                                                          
Core PCE inflation       1.5    1.7-1.9    2.0     2.0-2.1        NA        
September Projection   1.5-1.6  1.8-2.0    2.0     2.0-2.1        NA        
                                                                             
--                                                                           
                                                                             
Memo: Projected Appropriate Policy Path                                      
                                                                             
Federal Funds Rate       1.4    1.9-2.4  2.4-3.1   2.6-3.1     2.8-3.0  
September Projection   1.1-1.4  1.9-2.4  2.4-3.1   2.5-3.5     2.5-3.0    
                                                                            
                                                                            
                                     Range (3)                              
                                                                            
                                                                            
                          2017     2018     2019      2020  Longer Run  
                                                                          
Change in real GDP     2.4-2.6  2.2-2.8  1.7-2.4   1.1-2.2     1.7-2.2
September Projection   2.2-2.7  1.7-2.6  1.4-2.3   1.4-2.0     1.5-2.2    
                                                                          
--                                                                        
                                                                          
Unemployment rate        4.1    3.6-4.0  3.5-4.2   3.5-4.5     4.3-5.0
September Projection   4.2-4.5  3.9-4.5  3.8-4.5   3.8-4.8     4.5-5.0    
                                                                          
--                                                                        
                                                                          
PCE inflation          1.5-1.7  1.7-2.1  1.8-2.3   1.9-2.2       2.0  
September Projection   1.5-1.7  1.7-2.0  1.8-2.2   1.9-2.2       2.0       
                                                                          
--                                                                        
                                                                          
Core PCE inflation     1.4-1.5  1.7-2.0  1.8-2.3   1.9-2.3       NA        
September Projection   1.4-1.7  1.7-2.0  1.8-2.2   1.9-2.2       NA        
                                                                          
--                                                                        
                                                                            
Memo: Projected Appropriate Policy Path                                     
                                                                            
Federal Funds Rate     1.1-1.4  1.1-2.6  1.4-3.6   1.4-4.1     2.3-3.0    
September Projection   1.1-1.6  1.1-2.6  1.1-3.4   1.1-3.9     2.3-3.5    
--
    
     Note: Projections of change in real gross domestic product (GDP) 
and projections for both measures of inflation are percent changes from 
the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the 
year indicated. PCE inflation and core PCE inflation are the percentage 
rates of change in, respectively, the price index for personal 
consumption expenditures (PCE) and the price index for PCE excluding 
food and energy. Projections for the unemployment rate are for the 
average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year 
indicated. Each participant's projections are based on his or her 
assessment of appropriate monetary policy. Longer-run projections 
represent each participant's assessment of the rate to which each 
variable would be expected to converge under appropriate monetary policy 
and in the absence of further shocks to the economy. The projections for 
the federal funds rate are the value (rounded to the nearest 1/8 
percentage point) of the midpoint of the projected appropriate target 
range for the federal funds rate or the projected appropriate target 
level for the federal funds rate at the end of the specified calendar 
year or over the longer run. The June projections were made in 
conjunction with the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on 
June 16-17, 2015. 
     1. For each period, the median is the middle projection when the 
projections are arranged from lowest to highest. When the number of 
projections is even, the median is the average of the two middle 
projections. 
     2. The central tendency excludes the three highest and three lowest 
projections for each variable in each year. 
     3. The range for a variable in a given year includes all 
participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in 
that year. 
     4. Longer-run projections for core PCE inflation are not collected. 
     ** MNI Washington Bureau (202) 371-2121 ** 
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