US Data: Fed Economic Projections Vs. Previous Estimates>

Below are the updated Federal Reserve projections of major economic 

indicators published Wednesday: 

Release for: March 2019

Source: U.S. Federal Reserve

Data in Percent

                                    Median (1)

                          2019     2020     2021   Longer Run  

Change in real GDP         2.1      1.9      1.8        1.9

December Projection        2.3      2.0      1.8        1.9       

--                                                     

Unemployment rate          3.7      3.8      3.9        4.3

December Projection        3.5      3.6      3.8        4.4                       

--                                                     

PCE inflation              1.8      2.0      2.0        2.0

December Projection        1.9      2.1      2.1        2.0              

--                                                     

Core PCE inflation         2.0      2.0      2.0         NA

December Projection        2.0      2.0      2.0         NA        

--                                                                        

Memo: Projected Appropriate Policy Path                  

Federal Funds Rate         2.4      2.6      2.6        2.8

December Projection        2.9      3.1      3.1        2.8             

                                Central Tendency (2)                        

                          2019     2020     2021   Longer Run  

Change in real GDP     1.9-2.2  1.8-2.0  1.7-2.0    1.8-2.0

December Projection    2.3-2.5  1.8-2.0  1.5-2.0    1.8-2.0    

--                                                     

Unemployment rate      3.6-3.8  3.6-3.9  3.7-4.1    4.1-4.5

December Projection    3.5-3.7  3.5-3.8  3.6-3.9    4.2-4.5    

--                                                     

PCE inflation          1.8-1.9  2.0-2.1  2.0-2.1      2.0

December Projection    1.8-2.1  2.0-2.1  2.0-2.1      2.0           

--                                                     

Core PCE inflation     1.9-2.0  2.0-2.1  2.0-2.1       NA

December Projection    2.0-2.1  2.0-2.1  2.0-2.1       NA         

--                                                                           

Memo: Projected Appropriate Policy Path                                      

Federal Funds Rate     2.4-2.6  2.4-2.9  2.4-2.9    2.5-3.0

December Projection    2.6-3.1  2.9-3.4  2.6-3.1    2.5-3.0           

                                     Range (3)                              

                          2019     2020     2021   Longer Run  

Change in real GDP     1.6-2.4  1.7-2.2  1.5-2.2    1.7-2.2

December Projection    2.0-2.7  1.5-2.2  1.4-2.1    1.7-2.2    

--                                                     

Unemployment rate      3.5-4.0  3.4-4.1  3.4-4.2    4.0-4.6

December Projection    3.4-4.0  3.4-4.3  3.4-4.2    4.0-4.6    

--                                                     

PCE inflation          1.6-2.1  1.9-2.2  2.0-2.2      2.0

December Projection    1.8-2.2  2.0-2.2  2.0-2.3      2.0       

--                                                     

Core PCE inflation     1.8-2.2  1.8-2.2  1.9-2.2       NA

December Projection    1.9-2.2  2.0-2.2  2.0-2.3       NA        

--                                                                        

Memo: Projected Appropriate Policy Path                                     

Federal Funds Rate     2.4-2.9  2.4-3.4  2.4-3.6    2.5-3.5

December Projection    2.4-3.1  2.4-3.6  2.4-3.6    2.5-3.5        

--

     Note: Projections of change in real gross domestic product (GDP) 

and projections for both measures of inflation are percent changes from 

the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the 

year indicated. PCE inflation and core PCE inflation are the percentage 

rates of change in, respectively, the price index for personal 

consumption expenditures (PCE) and the price index for PCE excluding 

food and energy. Projections for the unemployment rate are for the 

average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year 

indicated. Each participant's projections are based on his or her 

assessment of appropriate monetary policy. Longer-run projections 

represent each participant's assessment of the rate to which each 

variable would be expected to converge under appropriate monetary policy 

and in the absence of further shocks to the economy. The projections for 

the federal funds rate are the value (rounded to the nearest 1/8 

percentage point) of the midpoint of the projected appropriate target 

range for the federal funds rate or the projected appropriate target 

level for the federal funds rate at the end of the specified calendar 

year or over the longer run. The June projections were made in 

conjunction with the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on 

June 16-17, 2015. 

     1. For each period, the median is the middle projection when the 

projections are arranged from lowest to highest. When the number of 

projections is even, the median is the average of the two middle 

projections. 

     2. The central tendency excludes the three highest and three lowest 

projections for each variable in each year. 

     3. The range for a variable in a given year includes all 

participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in 

that year. 

     4. Longer-run projections for core PCE inflation are not collected. 

     ** MNI Washington Bureau (202) 371-2121 ** 

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