US Data Forecast Focus: Advance 2nd Qtr GDP Seen Up 2.7%>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - First quarter GDP is expected to rise 2.7% after 

a 1.4% increase in the previous quarter. The key factors are expected to 

be stronger PCE growth and inventory accumulation, while nonresidential 

fixed investment should slow, but remain positive. These should be 

offset by softer residential fixed investment growth and a modestly 

wider trade gap. The chain price index is forecast to rise 1.3% after 

the first quarter's 1.9% gain. Annual revisions will be included with 

the data. 

     Analysts overestimated advance GDP in the both of the previous two 

quarters after a modest underestimate in the third quarter. Missing data 

for the third month of the quarter, in this case June, is always a risk, 

though the advance estimates of trade and retail and wholesale 

inventories lessen that risk. In addition, the annual revisions to the 

series could alter the data in recent quarter. 

                                       Final   Final

                                       Growth  Final   Median less

                                       Rate:   Sales:  actual advance:

Forecast:                      1Q-17     1.4      2.6   1Q-17    0.5

 Median        2.7             4Q-16     2.1      1.1   4Q-16    0.2

 Range High    3.5             3Q-16     3.5      3.0   3Q-16   -0.2

 Range Low     1.9             2Q-16     1.4      2.6   2Q-16    1.2

                                                                            2Q avg/

                                                                            1Q avg

                                                                             % chg

                             Jan-17  Feb-17  Mar-17  Apr-17  May-17  Jun-17 Ann Rate

Indices:

  BLS Agg Hours               106.4   106.3   106.3   107.1   106.9   107.4    3.0

  Ind. Production             103.5   103.7   103.8   104.7   104.8   105.2    4.8

$ blns unless otherwise noted:

  Real PCE**                11679.2 11677.4 11747.4 11771.0 11785.0  11778.0   2.6

  Total Retail Sls            473.5   472.5   473.0   474.5   474.2    473.5   0.9

  Non-MV Retail Sls           375.1   375.6   376.6   377.6   376.4    375.6   0.8

  Mtr Veh Retail Sls           98.3    96.9    96.4    96.9    97.8     97.9   1.4

  Civ Cap Shipments            69.3    69.5    70.0    69.9    70.6     70.9   4.8

  Civ Cap Shipms ex Air        61.7    62.5    62.6    62.7    63.0     63.0   4.2

  Bus. Invs**                1850.2  1855.1  1858.3  1854.6  1859.7   1857.2   0.6

 Constr. Spending**          1223.5  1235.7  1239.6  1230.4  1230.1   1230.2  -0.9

  Priv Residential Cons**     502.0   505.7   509.9   512.7   509.6    511.1   4.2

  Priv Nonresidential Cons    444.3   443.6   440.9   436.7   433.6    435.1  -6.9

  Public Construction**       277.2   286.4   288.7   281.0   286.9    284.0  -0.2

 Goods Gap (2009 $)**          65.6    60.4    60.7    63.8    62.8     63.3   7.4

  Goods Exports (2009 $)**    124.8   124.8   124.3   123.8   125.0    124.4  -0.9

  Goods Imports (2009 $)**    190.4   185.1   185.0   187.6   187.8    187.7   1.8

**In cases where quarterly data are not complete,

the average of the first two months of the quarter is

substituted for the third month.

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email:kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]