US Data Forecast Focus: April CPI Seen +0.3%, Core +0.2%

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The CPI is expected to rise 0.3% in April following a

weaker-than-expected 0.1% decline in March. The year/year rates should stabilize

or even decline modestly after a run-up in March due to base factors from a year

ago. For April, AAA reported a modest gain in mid-month prices from March, which

could support a rebound in CPI gasoline prices after a March decline. The core

CPI is forecast to rise 0.2% following a similar increase in the previous month.

     Analysts slightly overestimated overall CPI in March, but there were few

surprises found in the report. The forecast history for April CPI is similar to

other months, with small misses and otherwise accurate estimates.

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                                 Nov-17  Dec-17  Jan-18  Feb-18  Mar-18  Apr-18

Overall CPI Forecast:

Median                              0.4     0.1     0.3     0.2     0.0     0.3

Range High                          0.5     0.2     0.5     0.3     0.1     0.3

Range Low                           0.3     0.0     0.2     0.1    -0.1     0.2

Actual result                       0.4     0.1     0.5     0.2    -0.1    #N/A

Median-Actual                       0.0     0.0    -0.2     0.0     0.1    #N/A

Historical comparison:           Apr-12  Apr-13  Apr-14  Apr-15  Apr-16  Apr-17

Median                              0.0    -0.3     0.3     0.1     0.3     0.2

Range High                          0.3     0.3     0.3     0.1     0.5     0.3

Range Low                          -0.1    -0.4     0.2     0.0     0.3     0.2

Actual result                       0.0    -0.4     0.3     0.1     0.4     0.2

Median-Actual                       0.0     0.1     0.0     0.0    -0.1     0.0

                                 Nov-17  Dec-17  Jan-18  Feb-18  Mar-18  Apr-18

Core CPI Forecast:

Median                              0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2

Range High                          0.2     0.3     0.3     0.2     0.2     0.2

Range Low                           0.2     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.2

Actual result                       0.1     0.3     0.3     0.2     0.2    #N/A

Median-Actual                       0.1    -0.1    -0.1     0.0     0.0    #N/A

Historical comparison:           Apr-12  Apr-13  Apr-14  Apr-15  Apr-16  Apr-17

Median                              0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2

Range High                          0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.3

Range Low                           0.0     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1

Actual result                       0.2     0.1     0.2     0.3     0.2     0.1

Median-Actual                       0.0     0.1     0.0    -0.1     0.0     0.1

Change in:

                                         Dec-17  Jan-18  Feb-18  Mar-18  Apr-18

AAA Self-serve Reg Unleaded

($/gal)                                   2.456   2.491   2.570   2.523   2.658

mo/mo pct change                           #N/A     1.4     3.2    -1.8     5.4

ISM Mfg Index Price Index                  69.0    72.7    74.2    78.1    79.3

ISM Nonmfg Index Price

Index                                      59.9    61.9    61.0    61.5    61.8

--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

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