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     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The CPI is expected to rise 0.3% in April following a
weaker-than-expected 0.1% decline in March. The year/year rates should stabilize
or even decline modestly after a run-up in March due to base factors from a year
ago. For April, AAA reported a modest gain in mid-month prices from March, which
could support a rebound in CPI gasoline prices after a March decline. The core
CPI is forecast to rise 0.2% following a similar increase in the previous month.
     Analysts slightly overestimated overall CPI in March, but there were few
surprises found in the report. The forecast history for April CPI is similar to
other months, with small misses and otherwise accurate estimates.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                 Nov-17  Dec-17  Jan-18  Feb-18  Mar-18  Apr-18
Overall CPI Forecast:
Median                              0.4     0.1     0.3     0.2     0.0     0.3
Range High                          0.5     0.2     0.5     0.3     0.1     0.3
Range Low                           0.3     0.0     0.2     0.1    -0.1     0.2
Actual result                       0.4     0.1     0.5     0.2    -0.1    #N/A
Median-Actual                       0.0     0.0    -0.2     0.0     0.1    #N/A
Historical comparison:           Apr-12  Apr-13  Apr-14  Apr-15  Apr-16  Apr-17
Median                              0.0    -0.3     0.3     0.1     0.3     0.2
Range High                          0.3     0.3     0.3     0.1     0.5     0.3
Range Low                          -0.1    -0.4     0.2     0.0     0.3     0.2
Actual result                       0.0    -0.4     0.3     0.1     0.4     0.2
Median-Actual                       0.0     0.1     0.0     0.0    -0.1     0.0
                                 Nov-17  Dec-17  Jan-18  Feb-18  Mar-18  Apr-18
Core CPI Forecast:
Median                              0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2
Range High                          0.2     0.3     0.3     0.2     0.2     0.2
Range Low                           0.2     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.2
Actual result                       0.1     0.3     0.3     0.2     0.2    #N/A
Median-Actual                       0.1    -0.1    -0.1     0.0     0.0    #N/A
Historical comparison:           Apr-12  Apr-13  Apr-14  Apr-15  Apr-16  Apr-17
Median                              0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2
Range High                          0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.3
Range Low                           0.0     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1
Actual result                       0.2     0.1     0.2     0.3     0.2     0.1
Median-Actual                       0.0     0.1     0.0    -0.1     0.0     0.1
Change in:
                                         Dec-17  Jan-18  Feb-18  Mar-18  Apr-18
AAA Self-serve Reg Unleaded
($/gal)                                   2.456   2.491   2.570   2.523   2.658
mo/mo pct change                           #N/A     1.4     3.2    -1.8     5.4
ISM Mfg Index Price Index                  69.0    72.7    74.2    78.1    79.3
ISM Nonmfg Index Price
Index                                      59.9    61.9    61.0    61.5    61.8
--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$]

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