US Data Forecast Focus: August Industrial Prod Seen +0.1%>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Industrial production is expected to rise 0.1% 

in August after a 0.2% gain in the previous month. Factory payrolls rose 

by 36,000 in August, while auto production jobs rose by 14,000 and the 

factory workweek declined to 40.7 hours from 40.9 hours in July. The ISM 

production index rose to 61.0 in August from 60.6 in the previous month. 

Utilities production is expected to softer in the month after a 1.6% 

July gain, as cooler weather reduced electricity use, while mining 

production is forecast to weaken after rising in the previous four 

months. Capacity utilization is forecast to rise to 76.8% from 76.7% in 

July. 

     Analysts overestimated industrial production in July due to a small 

decline in manufacturing production that was offset by gains in mining 

production and utilities production. Recent August misses have been 

decidely to high side, so another overestimate is a strong possibility. 

Industrial Production:     Mar-17  Apr-17  May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17

Forecast:

 Median                       0.4     0.6     0.2     0.3     0.3     0.1

 High                         0.9     1.0     0.5     0.5     0.5     0.5

 Low                          0.1     0.2    -0.1     0.2     0.1    -1.3

Actual result                 0.5     1.0     0.0     0.4     0.2    #N/A

 vs median forecast          -0.1    -0.4     0.2    -0.1     0.1    #N/A

Historical Comparison:     Aug-11  Aug-12  Aug-13  Aug-14  Aug-15  Aug-16

 Median                       0.1    -0.1     0.5     0.3    -0.3    -0.2

 High                         0.3     0.7     0.8     0.5     0.0     0.1

 Low                         -0.4    -0.6     0.3    -0.5    -0.5    -0.4

Actual result                 0.2    -1.2     0.4    -0.1    -0.4    -0.4

 vs median forecast          -0.1     1.1     0.1     0.4     0.1     0.2

Capacity Utilization:      Mar-17  Apr-17  May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17

Forecast:

 Median                      76.1    76.4    76.8    76.8    76.7    76.8

 High                        76.5    76.7    77.0    76.9    76.9    77.0

 Low                         75.7    76.2    76.6    76.6    76.6    75.6

Actual result                76.1    76.7    76.6    76.6    76.7    #N/A

 vs median forecast           0.0    -0.3     0.2     0.2     0.0    #N/A

Historical Comparison:     Aug-11  Aug-12  Aug-13  Aug-14  Aug-15  Aug-16

 Median                      77.5    79.1    78.0    79.3    77.7    75.7

 High                        77.7    79.5    78.0    79.4    77.9    76.0

 Low                         76.9    78.7    77.8    78.6    77.5    75.6

Actual result                77.4    78.2    77.8    78.8    77.6    75.5

 vs median forecast           0.1     0.9     0.2     0.5     0.1     0.2

                           Mar-17  Apr-17  May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17

NA-Made Motor Vehicle Sale   12.9    12.9    12.7    12.8    12.9    12.3

Mfg Agg Hrs Index % chg      -0.1     0.3     0.0     0.3     0.5    -0.2

Factory Jobs (000's)           11       9       0      21      26      36

 Auto Prod Jobs (000's)         2      -1       1       3       5      14

Mining Jobs (000's)             7      10       6       6       2       7

Levels:

  ISM Mfg PMI                57.2    54.8    54.9    57.8    56.3    58.8

  ISM Mfg Production         57.6    58.6    57.1    62.4    60.6    61.0

  Phila. Fed Index           32.8    22.0    38.8    27.6    19.5    18.9

  Empire State Index         16.4     5.2    -1.0    19.8     9.8    25.2

  Chicago PMI                57.7    58.3    59.4    65.7    58.9    58.9

  Factory Workweek           40.6    40.7    40.7    40.8    40.9    40.7

  Factory Overtime            3.3     3.2     3.3     3.3     3.3     3.3

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email:kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]