US Data Forecast Focus: November PPI Seen -0.1%, Core +0.1%

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 12:35 GMT Dec 11/07:35 EST Dec 11

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Final demand PPI is expected to fall 0.1% in November

after a 0.6% October increase that showed an impact from Hurricane Michael on

food and energy prices. Energy prices are expected to slip following a 2.7%

October increase, while food prices are expected to decline after a 1.0% gain.

Excluding food and energy prices, PPI is forecast to rise only 0.1% after a 0.5%

October increase.

     Analysts sharply underestimated both overall and core PPI in October, but

the underlying details suggested more modest growth. Recent November misses

suggest a risk of an underestimate,

                                  Jun-18  Jul-18  Aug-18  Sep-18  Oct-18  Nov-18

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Overall PPI Forecast:

Median                               0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.3    -0.1

Range High                           0.3     0.3     0.5     0.3     0.4     0.2

Range Low                            0.2     0.1     0.1     0.0     0.2    -0.3

Actual result                        0.3     0.0    -0.1     0.2     0.6    #N/A

Median-Actual                       -0.1     0.2     0.3     0.0    -0.3    #N/A

Historical Comparison             Nov-12  Nov-13  Nov-14  Nov-15  Nov-16  Nov-17

Median                              -0.5     0.0    -0.1     0.0     0.2     0.3

Range High                           0.0     0.3     0.1     0.2     0.3     0.5

Range Low                           -0.9    -0.2    -0.4    -0.3     0.1     0.2

Actual result                       -0.8    -0.1    -0.2     0.3     0.4     0.4

Median-Actual                        0.3     0.1     0.1    -0.3    -0.2    -0.1

                                  Jun-18  Jul-18  Aug-18  Sep-18  Oct-18  Nov-18

Core PPI Forecast:

Median                               0.3     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.1

Range High                           0.3     0.3     0.3     0.3     0.3     0.2

Range Low                            0.2     0.2     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.0

Actual result                        0.3     0.1    -0.1     0.2     0.5    #N/A

Median-Actual                        0.0     0.1     0.3     0.0    -0.3    #N/A

Historical comparison:            Nov-12  Nov-13  Nov-14  Nov-15  Nov-16  Nov-17

Median                               0.2     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.2     0.2

Range High                           0.4     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2

Range Low                           -0.2     0.0    -0.1     0.0     0.1     0.0

Actual result                        0.1     0.1     0.0     0.3     0.4     0.3

Median-Actual                        0.1     0.0     0.1    -0.2    -0.2    -0.1

NOTE: From Jan. 2014

forward, forecast data are

for Final Demand PPI and

Core

                                          Jul-18  Aug-18  Sep-18  Oct-18  Nov-18

ISM Mfg Index Price Index                   73.2    72.1    66.9    71.6    60.7

ISM Nonmfg Index Price Index                63.4    62.8    64.2    61.7    64.3

--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]