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US Data Forecast Focus: November PPI Seen -0.1%, Core +0.1%

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 12:35 GMT Dec 11/07:35 EST Dec 11
     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Final demand PPI is expected to fall 0.1% in November
after a 0.6% October increase that showed an impact from Hurricane Michael on
food and energy prices. Energy prices are expected to slip following a 2.7%
October increase, while food prices are expected to decline after a 1.0% gain.
Excluding food and energy prices, PPI is forecast to rise only 0.1% after a 0.5%
October increase.
     Analysts sharply underestimated both overall and core PPI in October, but
the underlying details suggested more modest growth. Recent November misses
suggest a risk of an underestimate,
                                  Jun-18  Jul-18  Aug-18  Sep-18  Oct-18  Nov-18
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Overall PPI Forecast:
Median                               0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.3    -0.1
Range High                           0.3     0.3     0.5     0.3     0.4     0.2
Range Low                            0.2     0.1     0.1     0.0     0.2    -0.3
Actual result                        0.3     0.0    -0.1     0.2     0.6    #N/A
Median-Actual                       -0.1     0.2     0.3     0.0    -0.3    #N/A
Historical Comparison             Nov-12  Nov-13  Nov-14  Nov-15  Nov-16  Nov-17
Median                              -0.5     0.0    -0.1     0.0     0.2     0.3
Range High                           0.0     0.3     0.1     0.2     0.3     0.5
Range Low                           -0.9    -0.2    -0.4    -0.3     0.1     0.2
Actual result                       -0.8    -0.1    -0.2     0.3     0.4     0.4
Median-Actual                        0.3     0.1     0.1    -0.3    -0.2    -0.1
                                  Jun-18  Jul-18  Aug-18  Sep-18  Oct-18  Nov-18
Core PPI Forecast:
Median                               0.3     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.1
Range High                           0.3     0.3     0.3     0.3     0.3     0.2
Range Low                            0.2     0.2     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.0
Actual result                        0.3     0.1    -0.1     0.2     0.5    #N/A
Median-Actual                        0.0     0.1     0.3     0.0    -0.3    #N/A
Historical comparison:            Nov-12  Nov-13  Nov-14  Nov-15  Nov-16  Nov-17
Median                               0.2     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.2     0.2
Range High                           0.4     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2
Range Low                           -0.2     0.0    -0.1     0.0     0.1     0.0
Actual result                        0.1     0.1     0.0     0.3     0.4     0.3
Median-Actual                        0.1     0.0     0.1    -0.2    -0.2    -0.1
NOTE: From Jan. 2014
forward, forecast data are
for Final Demand PPI and
Core
                                          Jul-18  Aug-18  Sep-18  Oct-18  Nov-18
ISM Mfg Index Price Index                   73.2    72.1    66.9    71.6    60.7
ISM Nonmfg Index Price Index                63.4    62.8    64.2    61.7    64.3
--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]

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