US Data: Highlights of Market Estimates of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for 

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by Bloomberg estimates. The comment

section presents the key elements behind the median forecasts. 

     Construction Spending for Oct (percent change) 

 Monday, Dec. 2 at 10:00 a.m. ET                          Actual: 

              Median                                 Oct19  Sep19  Aug19

Construction  +0.4%                                     --  +0.5%  -0.3%

     Comments: Construction spending is expected to rise by 0.4% in October.

Housing starts rose 3.8% in the month, so residential construction should

advance as well.

ISM Manufacturing Index for November

 Monday, Dec. 2 at 10:00 a.m. ET                               Actual:

               Median                                     Nov19  Oct19  Sep19

Mfg ISM         49.2                                         --   48.3   47.8

     Comments: The ISM manufacturing index is expected to recover further in

November but stay in contractionary territory at 49.2. Regional conditions data

have been mixed, though the flash Markit reading rose to a seven-month high of

52.2 and the MNI Chicago index also improved.

Motor Vehicle Sales for November (mln units, saar) 

 Monday, Dec. 2                                                Actual: 

               Median                                     Nov19  Oct19  Sep19 

Sales           16.8m                                       --   16.5m  17.1m

     Comments: The pace of domestic vehicle sales is expected to increase to

16.8 million after slipping back to 16.5 million in October. 

ADP Private Payrolls for November (change in thousands) 

 Wednesday, Dec. 4 at 8:30 a.m. ET                             Actual: 

               Median                                     Nov19  Oct19  Sep19 

Payrolls       +140k                                         --  +125k   +93k 

     Comments: ADP private payrolls is expected to gain 140,000 in November, a

pickup from October's 125,000 pace. 

     ISM Non-manufacturing Index for November

 Wednesday, Dec. 4 at 10:00 a.m. ET                            Actual: 

               Median                                     Nov19  Oct19  Sep19

ISM NMI         54.5                                         --   54.7   52.6

     Comments: The nonmanufacturing ISM reading is expected to fall back

slightly to 54.5 from 54.7 in October. The flash Markit services estimate rose

to a four-month high of 51.6, while the Dallas services reading also ticked

higher to 4.7 from 1.8 in October. But the Richmond Fed services reading fell

back to 15 from 24 in October.

Trade in Goods and Services for October (deficit, billion $) 

 Thursday, Dec. 5 at 8:30 a.m. ET                              Actual: 

               Median                                     Oct19   Sep19   Aug19 

Trade Gap     -$48.7b                                       --  -$52.5b -$55.0b

     Comments: The international trade gap is expected to narrow to $48.7

billion in October from $52.5 billion in September due to a decline in both

exports and imports. The advance trade report last week showed a narrower than

expected gap in Census goods trade.

Weekly Jobless Claims for Nov 30 week (thousands)

 Thursday, Dec. 5 at 8:30 a.m. ET                               Actual:        

                          Median                          Nov30  Nov23  Nov16

Claims                     215k                             --    213k   228k

        Comments: The weekly Jobless Claims report is expected to rise a tad to

215,000 from 213,000 the previous week. 

Factory Orders for October (percent change) 

 Thursday, Dec. 5 at 10:00 a.m. ET                             Actual: 

               Median                                     Oct19  Sep19  Aug19 

New Orders      +0.3%                                        --  -0.7%  -0.1%

Ex-Transport     --                                          --  +0.7%  +0.3%

     Comments: Factory orders are expected to rebound to 0.3% from -0.7% in

September, reflecting a larger-than-expected gain of 0.6% in durable goods

orders last week. 

Nonfarm Payrolls for November (change in thousands) 

 Friday, Dec. 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET                                Actual: 

               Median                                     Nov19  Oct19  Sep19 

Payrolls       +185k                                         --  +128k  +180k 

Private Jobs   +180k                                         --  +131k  +157k 

Jobless Rate    3.6%                                         --   3.6%   3.5%

Hrly Earnings  +0.3%                                         --  +0.2%   Unch

Avg Wkly Hrs    34.4                                         --   34.4   34.4

     Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 185,000 in November

after a stronger-than-expected 128,000 gain in October despite the GM-UAW strike

that left more than 40,000 people temporarily unemployed. Slightly higher

jobless claims and slowing consumer confidence could add some drag to November

payrolls.

Wholesale Inventories for October (percent change) 

 Friday, Dec. 6 at 10:00 a.m. ET                            Actual: 

               Median                                  Oct19  Sep19  Aug19

Inventories     +0.2%                                     --  -0.7%  +0.1%

     Comments: The value of wholesale inventories is expected to rise by 0.2% in

October compared to a 0.7% decline a month earlier. 

University of Michigan Survey for December (preliminary) 

 Friday, Dec. 6 at 10:00 a.m. ET                                Actual: 

               Median                                     Dec19p  Nov19  Oct19

Consumer Sent   97.0                                         --    96.8   95.5

     Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to turn in 97.0,

slightly above November's 96.8 final reading.

Consumer Credit for October (dollar change, billions) 

 Friday, Dec. 6 at 3:00 p.m. ET                                 Actual: 

               Median                                      Oct19  Sep19  Aug19 

Cons Cred     +$16.0b                                        --  +$9.5b +$17.8b

     Comments: Consumer credit use is expected to rise by $16.0 billion in

October after a small $9.5 billion gain in September. Retail sales rebounded in

the month driven by auto sales and higher gas prices, though big-ticket

household items and clothing saw declines.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: jean.yung@marketnews.com

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