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Free AccessUS Data: Highlights of Market Survey of Economic Forecasts
WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for upcoming
U.S. economic indicators provided by Bloomberg. The comment section presents the
key elements behind the median forecasts.
Empire Manufacturing Index (index)
Monday, June 15 at 8:30am (ET)
Actual
Median Jun20 May20 Apr20
Index -28.8 -- -48.5 -78.2
Comments: The Empire Manufacturing Index is expected to rise to -28.8,
continuing a two-month climb from April's -78.2 reading, the lowest ever
recorded for the index.
Retail Sales (percent change)
Tuesday, June 16 at 8:30am (ET)
Actual
Median May20 Apr20 Mar20
Retail Sales +7.2% -- -16.4% -8.3%
Retail ex mv +5.4% -- -17.2% -4.0%
Retail ex mv+gas +3.9% -- -16.2% -2.6%
Comments: U.S. May retail sales are expected to rebound sharply by 7.2% in
what would be the largest monthly percent increase on record. Sales dropped by
16.4% in April, the weakest reading in modern history. Excluding vehicle sales,
sales should increase 5.4% after falling 17.2% in April, and May control group
sales should rise by 3.9%. State reopenings in May will drive overall sales
higher, and a pickup in demand for fuel should put upward pressure on headline
sales.
Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (percent change)
Tuesday, June 16 at 9:15am (ET)
Actual
Median May20 Apr20 Mar20
Industrial Production +3.0% -- -11.2% -4.5%
Capacity Utilization 66.8% -- 64.9% 73.2%
Comments: Industrial production for May is expected to increase by 3.0%, which
would mark a modest uptick after posting declines over the last four out of five
months. April's industrial production change was the biggest m/m drop since
August 2009 when it fell -11.6%. Capacity utilization is also expected to
rebound to 66.8% after registering at 64.9% in April in what was the lowest
reading in the half-century history of the measure.
NAHB Home Builder Index (index)
Tuesday, June 16 at 10:00am (ET)
Actual
Median Jun20 May20 Apr20
Index 43 -- 37 30
Comments: The National Home Builder Index is slated to climb to 43 in
June, up from May's reading of 37. The index dropped to 30 in April, which was
the lowest reading since June 2011 when it reached 29.
Business Inventories (percent change)
Tuesday, June 16 at 10:00am (ET)
Actual
Median: Apr20 Mar20 Feb20
Inventories -0.7% -- -0.2% -0.5%
Comments: Business inventories for April are expected to decrease by -0.7% after
March's -0.5% drop. This would mark the fourth straight month of declines amid
rolling supply-chain disruptions in the wake of Covid-19. April's inventory drop
will likely be the largest m/m drop since inventories fell by -1.4% in August
2014.
Housing Starts & Building Permits (millions)
Wednesday, June 17 at 8:30am (ET)
Actual
Median May20 Apr20 Mar20
Starts 1.100m -- 0.891m 1.216m
Permits 1.260m -- 1.066m 1.350m
Comments: May housing starts are expected to climb to 1.100 million after
reaching 0.891 million in April, their lowest level since since February 2015
(0.888 million). Building permits are also expected to increase, climbing to
1.260 million after reaching 1.066 million in April in what was the lowest level
since March 2015 (1.071 million).
Initial Jobless Claims (millions)
Thursday, June 18 at 8:30am (ET)
Actual
Median Jun13 Jun06 May30
Claims 1.300m -- 1.542m 1.897m
Comments: U.S. weekly jobless claims filed through June 13 should fall to
1.3 million Thursday after reaching 1.5 million through June 6. State reopenings
have been gradual and continue to put significant pressure on the labor market,
keeping initial and continuing claims at historic highs.
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (index)
Thursday, June 18 at 8:30am (ET)
Actual
Median Jun20 May20 Apr20
Index -- -- -43.1 -56.6
Comments: No BBG estimate is available at this time.
Current Account Balance (billions)
Friday, June 19 at 8:30am (ET)
Actual
Median 1Q20 4Q19 3Q19
Balance -$104.6b -- -$109.8b -$124.1b
Comments: The current account balance for the first quarter of 2020 is expected
to rise to -$104.6 billion, up from the fourth quarter's reading of -$109.8
billion. The BEA reported that 4Q2019's balance was 2.0% of the current dollar
GDP.
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202 371 2121; email: ryan.hauser@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.