US Data: Highlights of Market Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT Jun 15/17:06 EST Jun 15

     WASHINGTON (MNI)  - The following are highlights of forecasts for upcoming

U.S. economic indicators provided by Bloomberg. The comment section presents the

key elements behind the median forecasts.

Retail Sales (percent change)

 Tuesday, June 16 at 8:30am (ET)                     

                                                       Actual                   

                  Median                        May20   Apr20  Mar20     

Retail Sales       +8.0%                           --  -16.4%  -8.3%   

Retail ex mv       +5.4%                           --  -17.2%  -4.0%    

Retail ex mv+gas   +5.0%                           --  -16.2%  -2.6%     

     Comments: U.S. May retail sales are expected to rebound sharply by 8.0% in

what would be the largest monthly percent increase on record. Sales dropped by

16.4% in April, the weakest reading in modern history. Excluding motor vehicle

sales, sales should increase 5.4% after falling -17.2% in April, and May control

group sales should rise by 5.0%. State reopenings in May will drive overall

sales higher, and a pickup in demand for fuel should put upward pressure on

headline sales.

Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (percent change)

 Tuesday, June 16 at 9:15am (ET)                         

                                                        Actual        

                          Median                  May20  Apr20  Mar20     

Industrial Production      +3.0%                     -- -11.2%  -4.5%    

Capacity Utilization       66.9%                     --  64.9%  73.2%  

Comments: Industrial production for May is expected to increase by 3.0%, which

would mark a modest uptick after posting declines over the last four out of five

months. April's industrial production change was the biggest m/m drop since

August 2009 when it fell -11.6%. Capacity utilization is also expected to

rebound to 66.9% after registering at 64.9% in April in what was the lowest

reading in the half-century history of the measure.

NAHB Home Builder Index (index)

 Tuesday, June 16 at 10:00am (ET)                    

                                                        Actual

                       Median                     Jun20  May20  Apr20  

Index                      45                        --     37     30       

     Comments:  The National Home Builder Index is slated to climb to 43 in

June, up from May's reading of 37. The index dropped to 30 in April, which was

the lowest reading since June 2011 when it reached 29.

Business Inventories (percent change)

 Tuesday, June 16 at 10:00am (ET)                     

                                                        Actual

                 Median:                           Apr20 Mar20  Feb20      

Inventories       -1.0%                               -- -0.2%  -0.5%   

Comments: Business inventories for April are expected to decrease by -1.0% after

March's -0.5% drop. This would mark the fourth straight month of declines amid

rolling supply-chain disruptions in the wake of Covid-19. April's inventory drop

will likely be the largest m/m drop since inventories fell by -1.4% in August

2014.

Housing Starts & Building Permits (millions)                   

 Wednesday, June 17 at 8:30am (ET)                          

                                                        Actual

                         Median                  May20   Apr20   Mar20        

Starts                   1.100m                     --  0.891m  1.216m  

Permits                  1.250m                     --  1.066m  1.350m  

     Comments: May housing starts are expected to climb to 1.100 million after

reaching 0.891 million in April, their lowest level since since February 2015

(0.888 million). Building permits are also expected to increase, climbing to

1.250 million after reaching 1.066 million in April in what was the lowest level

since March 2015 (1.071 million).

Initial Jobless Claims (millions)

 Thursday, June 18 at 8:30am (ET)                     

                                                         Actual

                   Median                         Jun13   Jun06   May30         

Claims             1.290m                            --  1.542m  1.897m  

     Comments: U.S. weekly jobless claims filed through June 13 should fall to

1.290 million Thursday after reaching 1.5 million through June 6. State

reopenings have been gradual and continue to put significant pressure on the

labor market, keeping initial and continuing claims at historic highs. 

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (index)

 Thursday, June 18 at 8:30am (ET)                

                                                          Actual        

               Median                               Jun20  May20  Apr20    

Index              --                                  --  -43.1  -56.6       

     Comments: No BBG estimate is available at this time.

Current Account Balance (billions) 

 Friday, June 19 at 8:30am (ET)                          

                                                          Actual        

                       Median                     1Q20      4Q19      3Q19   

Balance              -$103.0b                       --  -$109.8b  -$124.1b

Comments: The current account balance for the first quarter of 2020 is expected

to rise to -$103.0 billion, up from the fourth quarter's reading of -$109.8

billion. The BEA reported that 4Q2019's balance was 2.0% of the current dollar

GDP.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202 371 2121; email: ryan.hauser@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]