US Data: Highlights of Market Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 19:15 GMT Jun 19/15:15 EST Jun 19

     WASHINGTON (MNI)  - The following are highlights of forecasts for upcoming

U.S. economic indicators provided by Bloomberg. The comment section presents the

key elements behind the median forecasts.

Existing Home Sales for May (millions)

 Monday, June 22 at 10:00am (ET)                      

                                                          Actual        

                      Median                        May20  Apr20  Mar20

Sales                  4.15m                           --  4.33m  5.27m   

     Comments: May existing home sales are expected to drop further to a 4.15

million annualized pace from 4.33 million in April, extending the sharp slowdown

that began in March. The pending home sales index, which leads existing home

sales by roughly a month, declined sharply in March and April, but mortgage loan

applications rebounded in May. 

IHS-Markit PMIs (index)

 Tuesday, June 23 at 9:45am (ET)                                                

                                                            Actual

                    Median                          Jun20(f) May20  Apr20     

Manufacturing         47.8                               --   39.8   36.1

Services              44.8                               --   37.5   26.7

          Comments: U.S. manufacturing activity likely contracted at a slower

rate in June, with markets expecting the IHS-Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI to

increase to 47.8 from May's 39.8 reading. Last month's 3.7-point rebound still

signaled the second-steepest deterioration in manufacturing operating conditions

since 2009, suggesting a potentially rocky recovery.

     U.S. service-sector activity also showed signs of improvement in June,

though should still signal contraction. Markets expect June's IHS Markit Flash

U.S. Services PMI to rise to 44.8 following May's 37.5 reading. Activity still

fell sharply last month, declining at the second-fastest rate since 2009.

New Home Sales (thousands)

 Tuesday, June 23 at 10:00am (ET)                                               

                                                            Actual

                    Median                            May20  Apr20  Mar20     

Sales                 630k                               --   623k   619k     

     Comments: May new home sales are expected to rebound to 630,000 from

April's 623,000 annualized pace. 

Durable Goods Orders (percent change)

 Thursday, June 25 at 8:30am ET                        

                                                            Actual        

                          Median                      May20  Apr20  Mar20     

New orders                -12.0%                         -- -17.7% -16.7%    

Ex trans                   +3.0%                         --  -7.7%  -1.8%   

     Comments: The May durable goods report is expected to show new orders

dropping by another -12.0% after falling -17.7% in April and -16.7% in March,

record falls in the history of the Census Bureau's monthly report. Boeing orders

were zero in April while industrial production for durable goods and regional

manufacturing surveys rebounded in the month. Excluding transportation, new

durable goods orders for May are expected to rise by +3.0%.

Q1 GDP (final estimate)

 Thursday, May 28 at 8:30am (ET)                             Actual        

                          Median                         Q1(f) Q1(p)    Q4   

GDP                        -5.0%                          --  -5.0%  +2.1%

Price Index                +1.4%                          --  +1.4%  +1.3%   

     Comments: The final estimate for U.S. Q1 GDP is expected to remain

unchanged from its second estimate, dropping by -5.0%. The GDP price index is

also expected to remain unchanged from the second estimate, climbing by +1.4%. 

Initial Jobless Claims (millions)

 Thursday, June 25 at 8:30am (ET)                     

                                                         Actual

                   Median                          Jun20  Jun13  Jun06       

Claims               1.3m                             --   1.5m   1.5m     

     Comments: Jobless claims filed through June 20 likely fell to 1.3 million

after coming in at a higher-than-expected 1.5 million for week ending June 13.

Jobless claims should continue to fall in the coming weeks, but gradual state

re-openings and state backlogs will put upward pressure on initial filings.

Advanced Goods Trade Gap (billions)  

 Thursday, June 25 at 8:30am (ET)                             

                                                             Actual        

              Median                                  May20   Apr20   Mar20  

Gap          -$68.3b                                     --  -69.7b -$b

     Comments: The advanced goods trade gap (census basis) is expected to shrink

a tad to -$68.3 billion. Exports likely rebounded as businesses reopened across

the country. 

Personal Income (percent change)

 Friday, June 26 at 08:30am ET               

                                                             Actual        

                          Median                       May20  Apr20  Mar20    

Personal income            -5.8%                          -- +10.5%  -2.2%    

Personal spending          +8.7%                          -- -13.6%  -6.9%    

Total Price index           flat                          --  -0.5%  -0.2%    

Core PCE price index        flat                          --  -0.4%   flat    

     Comments: Personal income in May is expected to drop by -5.8% in what would

be the largest m/m contraction ever recorded since the report's inception in

1959 after April's record-setting jump. Personal spending is expected to rebound

by +8.7% as the country reopened. The total price index is expected to be flat

after falling for two months with the core PCE price index also flat after

falling -0.4% in April.

University of Michigan Survey of Consumers 

 Friday, June 26 at 10:00am (ET)

                                                             Actual

                          Median                     Jun20(f) May20  Apr20   

Consumer Sent               78.9                          --   72.3   71.8 

Comments: U.S. consumer sentiment likely rose to 78.9 in June, unchanged from

the preliminary estimate. This would mark a second straight gain, by 6.6 point

from May's 72.3 reading. Consumer sentiment is expected to rebound further as

the businesses reopen, though few consumers anticipate the reestablishment of

favorable economic conditions anytime soon, survey chief Richard Curtin said in

the June preliminary report. 

[TOPICS: MTABLE]