US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT Jul 28/17:06 EST Jul 28

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.       

MNI Chicago Report for July (index)                                     

 Monday, July 31 at 9:45 a.m. ET                         Actual:        

              Median       Range                     Jul17  Jun17  May17

 MNI Chicago    61.0    59.0 to 63.4                    --   65.7   59.4

     Comments: The MNI Chicago PMI is expected to fall to a reading of  

61.0 in July after surging to 65.7 in June. Other regional data already 

released suggest slower, but still solidly positive growth.             

Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales for July (mln units, saar)                 

 Tuesday, August 1                                       Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Jul17  Jun17  May17

 Dom Sales     13.1m       13.1m to 13.1m               --  12.7m  12.7m

     Comments: Domestic-made vehicle sales are expected to accelerate to

a 13.1 million SAAR in July after holding steady in June at 12.7        

million. Seasonal adjustment factors are usually a smaller subtraction  

to unadjusted sales in July than in June.                               

Personal Income for June (percent change)                               

 Tuesday, August 1 at 8:30 a.m. ET                           Actual:    

              Median        Range                    Jun17  May17  Apr17

 Income        +0.4%     +0.2% to +0.5%                 --  +0.4%  +0.3%

 Spending      +0.1%      Flat to +0.2%                 --  +0.1%  +0.4%

 Core Prices   +0.1%     +0.1% to +0.1%                 --  +0.1%  +0.1%

     Comments: Personal income is expected to post a 0.4% decrease in   

June, as payrolls rose by 222,000, average weekly hours rose to 34.5    

hours, and rose by 0.2%. Current dollar PCE is forecast to rise by only 

0.1%, as retail sales fell 0.2% in the month and were still down 0.2%   

excluding a 0.1% rise in motor vehicle sales. Core retail sales (also   

ex. gas) were down 0.1% in the month, while sales excluding autos, gas, 

building materials and food services fell 0.1%, indicating underlying   

weakness. The core PCE price index is expected to post a 0.1% increase  

in June, keeping the y/y measure well below 2%. Annual revisions will be

included with the data.                                                 

ISM Manufacturing Index for July                                        

 Tuesday, August 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                         Actual:     

              Median       Range                     Jul17  Jun17  May17

 Mfg ISM        56.4    55.0 to 57.5                    --   57.8   54.9

     Comments: The ISM manufacturing index is expected to slip back to a

reading of 56.9 in July after a solid gain to 57.8 in July. Regional    

conditions data have been mixed, with the Empire, Kansas City and       

Philadelphia Fed readings declining, but the Richmond Fed index up. The 

flash reading for the July Markit manufacturing survey was up from June.

Construction Spending for June (percent change)                         

 Tuesday, August 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                      Actual:        

                Median         Range                 Jun17  May17  Apr17

 Construction    +0.4%     -0.8% to +0.4%              --   Flat   -0.7%

     Comments: Construction spending is expected to rise 0.4% in June.  

Housing starts surged 8.3% in the month after three straight declines,  

suggesting private residential building could rebound after dip in May. 

Weekly Jobless Claims for July 29 week                                  

 Thursday, August 3 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:      

                 Median        Range                 Jul29  Jul22  Jul15

 Weekly Claims     242k    240k to 247k                 --   244k   234k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall  

by 2,000 to 242,000 in the July 29 week after a 10,000 increase in the  

previous week. The four-week moving average, which held steady in the   

July 22 week, would decline by 5,000 in the coming week as the 250,000  

level in the July 1 week drops out of the drops out of the calculation, 

assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions. Auto   

plant retooling shutdowns frequently occur in early-July. While         

automakers have recently moved to shutdowns in other parts of the year, 

seasonal factors still look for a boost in unadjusted claims early in   

the month, followed by declines at the end of the month.                

ISM Non-manufacturing Index for July                                    

 Thursday, August 3 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

              Median        Range                    Jul17  Jun17  May17

 ISM NMI        56.9     55.0 to 57.0                   --   57.4   56.9

     Comments: The ISM nonmanufacturing index is expected to decline to 

a reading of 56.4 in July after rising to 57.4 in June. The flash Markit

Services estimate held steady at 54.2 in July.                          

Factory Orders for June (percent change)                                

 Thursday, August 3 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

             Median           Range                  Jun17  May17  Apr17

 New Orders   +2.5%      +1.1% to +3.2%                 --  -0.8%  -0.3%

     Comments: Factory orders are expected to rise 2.5% in June. Durable

goods orders surged 6.5% in the month on a spike in aircraft orders,    

while nondurables orders are expected to post a further decline due to  

soft energy prices.                                                     

Nonfarm Payrolls for July (change in thousands)                         

 Friday, August 4 at 8:30 a.m. ET                          Actual:      

               Median         Range                  Jul17  Jun17  May17

 Payrolls       +186k     +170k to +220k                --  +222k  +152k

 Private Job    +190k     +167k to +205k                --  +187k  +159k

 Jobless Rate    4.3%      4.3% to 4.4%                 --   4.4%   4.3%

 Hrly Earnings  +0.3%     +0.2% to +0.3%                --  +0.2%  +0.1%

 Avg Wkly Hrs    34.5      34.4 to 34.5                 --   34.5   34.4

     Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 186,000 in July 

after a stronger-than-expected 222,000 gain in June. The unemployment   

rate is expected to fall back to 4.3% after rebounding to 4.4% in June. 

Hourly earnings are forecast to rise 0.3% after a 0.2% gain in the      

previous month. Due to a large 0.4% rise in hourly earnings in July     

2016, the year/year gain for July 2017 is likely to be trimmed. The     

average workweek is expected to hold steady at 34.5.                    

Trade in Goods and Services for June (deficit, billion $)               

 Friday, August 4 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:        

              Median           Range               Jun17   May17   Apr17

 Trade Gap   -$44.5b     -$45.3b to -$44.0b           -- -$46.5b -$47.6b

     Comments: The international trade gap is expected to narrow to     

$44.5 billion in June. The advance estimate of the Census goods trade   

gap narrowed to $63.9 billion in June, with exports up 1.4% and imports 

down 0.4%.                                                              

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com