US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 20:06 GMT Oct 3/16:06 EST Oct 3

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.    

ISM Non-manufacturing Index for September                               

 Wednesday, October 4 at 10:00 a.m. ET                   Actual:        

              Median        Range                    Sep17  Aug17  Jul17

 ISM NMI        55.4     53.0 to 57.0                   --   55.3   53.9

     Comments: The ISM manufacturing index is expected to tick up       

modestly to a reading of 55.4 in September after a rise to 55.3 in      

August. Regional conditions data have been mixed, with the Dallas       

Services index down and the Philadelphia nonmanufacturing index up. The 

flash Markit services index slipped to 55.1 in the month from 56.0 in   

August.                                                                 

Weekly Jobless Claims for September 30 week                             

 Thursday, October 5 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

                  Median         Range               Sep30  Sep23  Sep16

 Weekly Claims      266k      260k to 300k              --   272k   260k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall  

by 6,000 to 266,000 in the September 30 week after a 12,000 increase in 

the previous week. Initial and continuing filings in hurricane-impact   

regions should begin to show any back-logged claims in areas where      

filing could not occur in previous weeks. The four-week moving average  

would fall by 8,000 in the coming week as the initial hurricane-impacted

298,000 level in the September 2 week drops out of the calculation,     

assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions.        

Trade in Goods and Services for August (deficit, billion $)             

 Thursday, October 5 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

              Median           Range               Aug17   Jul17   Jun17

 Trade Gap   -$42.6b     -$43.5b to -$41.5b           -- -$43.7b -$43.5b

     Comments: The international trade gap is expected to narrow to     

$42.6 billion in August. The advance estimate of the Census goods trade 

gap narrowed to $62.9 billion in August, with exports up 0.2% and       

imports down 0.3%.                                                      

Factory Orders for August (percent change)                              

 Thursday, October 5 at 10:00 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

              Median           Range                 Aug17  Jul17  Jun17

 New Orders    +0.9%      +0.8% to +1.1%                --  -3.3%  +3.2%

 Ex Transport    --             --                      --  +0.5%  +0.1%

     Comments: Factory orders are expected to rise by 0.9% in August.   

Durable goods orders rose 1.7% in the month on a rebound in aircraft    

orders, while nondurables orders are expected to see pickup from higher 

energy prices. The impact of Hurricane Harvey should be seen in orders  

and shipments. Factory orders are expected to post a modest gain        

excluding the transportation rebound. Durable orders excluding          

transportation were up 0.2% in the advance estimate.                    

Nonfarm Payrolls for September (change in thousands)                    

 Friday, October 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Sep17  Aug17  Jul17

 Payrolls        +70k      -45k to +125k                --  +156k  +189k

 Private Job     +70k      -25k to +125k                --  +165k  +202k

 Jobless Rate    4.4%      4.3% to 4.5%                 --   4.4%   4.3%

 Hrly Earnings  +0.3%     +0.2% to +0.4%                --  +0.1%  +0.3%

 Avg Wkly Hrs    34.4      34.3 to 34.4                 --   34.4   34.5

     Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by only 70,000 in  

September after August's disappointing 156,000 gain. The impact of      

Hurricane Harvey and Hurricane Irma is clearly expected to show up in   

this month's data, adding downside risk. The unemployment rate is       

expected to hold steady at 4.4%. Hourly earnings are forecast to rise   

0.3% after a 0.1% gain in the previous month. The average workweek is   

expected to stay at 34.4 hours, with a downside risk due to the         

hurricanes.                                                             

Consumer Credit for August (dollar change, billions)                    

 Friday, October 6 at 3:00 p.m. ET                       Actual:        

              Median           Range               Aug17   Jul17   Jun17

 Cons Cred   +$16.0b     +$14.0b to +$16.0b           -- +$18.5b +$11.8b

     Comments: Consumer credit is expected to rise by 16.0 billion in   

August after an $18.5 billion rise in July. Retail sales were down 0.2% 

and were up 0.2% excluding a 1.6% plunge in motor vehicle sales.        

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com