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US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 20:06 GMT Oct 19/16:06 EST Oct 19
     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 
median forecasts.   
Treasury Statement for September ($ billions)                           
 Date to be announced                                    Actual:        
             Median           Range              Sep17    Aug17    Sep16
 Balance     +$5.5b     +$4.0b to +$7.0b            -- -$107.7b  +$33.5b
     Comments: The Treasury statement for September, and FY 2017, should
show some deterioration from the previous year. For September           
specifically, a shift in transfer payments from October and outlays for 
hurricane-relief should be significant factors that will offset tax     
receipts. As a result, analysts expect a roughly balanced budget for the
September tax  month, down from a $33.5 billion surplus in September    
2016.                                                                           
Existing-home Sales for September (annual rate)                         
 Friday, October 20 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        
                 Median         Range                Sep17  Aug17  Jul17
 Home Resales     5.30m      5.10m to 5.38m             --  5.35m  5.44m
     Comments: The pace of existing home sales is expected to decelerate
further to a 5.30 million annual rate in September after falling in each
of the last three months. Sales were likely set back by the hurricanes, 
but could rebound early in 2018 due to the back-up of sales that could  
not be processed in the impacted areas. Pending home sales fell by 2.6% 
in August, a downside risk for the existing home sales data in          
September. Supply fell 2.1% in August and was down 6.5% from a year     
earlier, an indication of that supply shortage continues. In areas      
impacted by the hurricanes, the shortage of new homes for people to     
trade up to will likely continue for some time.                         
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com

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