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US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 20:06 GMT Dec 4/15:06 EST Dec 4
     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 
median forecasts.
Trade in Goods and Services for October (deficit, billion $)            
 Tuesday, December 5 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:       
              Median           Range               Oct17   Sep17   Aug17
 Trade Gap   -$47.5b      -$47.8b to -$43.4b          -- -$43.5b -$42.8b
     Comments: The international trade gap is expected to widen to $47.5
billion in October from $43.5 billion in September. The advance estimate
of the Census goods trade gap widened sharply to $68.3 billion, with    
exports down 1.0% and imports up 1.5%.                                  
ISM Non-manufacturing Index for November                                
 Tuesday, December 5 at 10:00 a.m. ET                    Actual:        
              Median        Range                    Nov17  Oct17  Sep17
 ISM NMI        59.0     58.0 to 60.6                   --   60.1   59.8
     Comments: The ISM nonmanufacturing index is expected to pull back  
to a reading of 59.0 in November after another increase to 60.1 in      
October. The Philadelphia nonmanufacturing index fell sharply to 19.3,  
while the flash Markit Services index ticked down to 54.7.              
Nonfarm Productivity for Third Quarter, revised (ann rate % change)     
 Wednesday, December 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:       
                   Median           Range            3Q17r  3Q17p   2Q17
 Productivity       +3.3%      +2.8% to +3.5%           --  +3.0%  +1.5%
 Unit Labor Costs   +0.2%      -0.3% to +0.5%           --  +0.5%  +0.3%
     Comments: Nonfarm productivity is expected to be revised up to a   
3.3% pace of growth on the upwardly revised output data. Unit labor cost
growth is expected to be revised down to a 0.2% rate.                   
Weekly Jobless Claims for December 2 week                               
 Thursday, December 7 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        
                 Median         Range                Dec02  Nov25  Nov18
 Weekly Claims     240k      230k to 245k               --   238k   240k
     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise  
by 2,000 to 240,000 in the December 2 post-holiday week after a decrease
of 2,000 in the previous week. The four-week moving average would rise  
by only 250 in the coming week as the 239,000 level in the November 4   
week drops out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct 
and there are no revisions.                                             
Consumer Credit for October (dollar change, billions)                   
 Thursday, December 7 at 3:00 p.m. ET                       Actual:     
              Median           Range               Oct17   Sep17   Aug17
 Cons Cred   +$17.0b     +$15.0b to +$18.0b           -- +$20.8b +$13.1b
     Comments: Consumer credit is expected to rise by $17.0 billion in  
October after a $20.8 billion jump in September. Retail sales rose 0.2% 
and were still up 0.1% excluding a 0.7% increase in motor vehicle sales.
Nonfarm Payrolls for November (change in thousands)                     
 Friday, December 8 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:       
               Median         Range                  Nov17  Oct17  Sep17
 Payrolls       +200k      +165k to +250k               --  +261k   +18k
 Private Job    +198k      +160k to +245k               --  +252k   +15k
 Jobless Rate    4.1%       4.0% to 4.2%                --   4.1%   4.2%
 Hrly Earnings  +0.3%      +0.1% to +0.4%               --   Flat  +0.5%
 Avg Wkly Hrs    34.4       34.4 to 34.4                --   34.4   34.4
     Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 200,000 in      
November after hurricane-related fluctuations in September and October, 
while the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.1% in       
October. Hourly earnings are forecast to rise by 0.3% after a flat      
October reading and a 0.5% surge in September, and the average workweek 
is expected to continue at 34.4 hours, where it has been for the last   
four months.                                                            
University of Michigan Survey for December (preliminary)                
 Friday, December 8 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        
                Median           Range              Dec17p  Nov17  Oct17
 Consumer Sent    99.0        97.0 to 102.0             --   98.5   97.8
     Comments: The Michigan sentiment index rise slightly to a reading  
of 99.0 in early December from 98.5 in November.                                
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 212-800-8517; email: sara.haire@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]

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