US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 20:06 GMT Dec 21/15:06 EST Dec 21

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.   

Durable Goods Orders for November (percent change)                      

 Friday, December 22 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

               Median        Range                   Nov17  Oct17  Sep17

 New Orders     +2.3%    +1.2% to +4.0%                 --  -0.8%  +2.4%

 Ex-Transport   +0.6%    +0.3% to +2.0%                 --  +0.9%  +1.3%

     Comments: Durable goods orders are expected to rebound by 2.3% in  

November after a revised 0.8% decline in October. Boeing orders rose to 

159 from 64 in October, suggesting nondefense aircraft orders could rise

sharply. Orders excluding transportation are expected to post a more    

modest 0.6% gain after a 0.9% rise in October.                          

Personal Income for November (percent change)                           

 Friday, December 22 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Nov17  Oct17  Sep17

 Income         +0.4%     +0.4% to +0.5%                --  +0.4%  +0.4%

 Spending       +0.4%     +0.3% to +0.6%                --  +0.3%  +0.9%

 Core Prices    +0.1%     +0.1% to +0.1%                --  +0.2%  +0.2%

     Comments: Personal income is expected to rise by 0.4% in November, 

as payrolls increased by 228,000, average weekly hours rose to 34.5     

hours, and hourly earnings were up 0.2%. Current dollar PCE is forecast 

to rise 0.4%, as retail sales surged by 0.8% in the month and were up   

1.0% excluding a 0.2% decline in motor vehicle sales. Core retail sales 

(also ex. gas) were up 0.8% in the month, as were sales excluding autos,

gas, building materials and food services, indicating underlying        

underlying sales strength. The core PCE price index is expected to post 

a 0.1% increase in November following 0.2% gains in the previous two    

months, keeping the  year/year rate should remain well below the 2%     

threshold.                                                              

New Home Sales for November (annual rate)                               

 Friday, December 22 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:       

               Median         Range                  Nov17  Oct17  Sep17

 New Homes       658k      640k to 705k                 --   685k   645k

     Comments: New home sales are expected to slow to a 658,000 annual  

rate in November following sharp gains in the previous two months.      

Unadjusted sales were up 19.6% from a year earlier before seasonal      

adjustment. Home supply rose in October, though not enough to keep up   

with sales growth, so the months supply dipped to 4.9 months. Even so,  

there should be adequate homes available for sale when demand returns.  

University of Michigan Survey for December (final)                      

 Friday, December 22 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:       

                Median           Range              Dec17f Dec17p  Nov17

 Consumer Sent    97.0       96.5 to 97.5               --   96.8   98.5

     Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to be revised up

to a reading of 97.0 in December from 96.8 in the preliminary estimate, 

but it would remain below the 98.5 reading in November.                 

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com