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Free AccessUS Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts
Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 20:06 GMT Dec 21/15:06 EST Dec 21
WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the
median forecasts.
Durable Goods Orders for November (percent change)
Friday, December 22 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Nov17 Oct17 Sep17
New Orders +2.3% +1.2% to +4.0% -- -0.8% +2.4%
Ex-Transport +0.6% +0.3% to +2.0% -- +0.9% +1.3%
Comments: Durable goods orders are expected to rebound by 2.3% in
November after a revised 0.8% decline in October. Boeing orders rose to
159 from 64 in October, suggesting nondefense aircraft orders could rise
sharply. Orders excluding transportation are expected to post a more
modest 0.6% gain after a 0.9% rise in October.
Personal Income for November (percent change)
Friday, December 22 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Nov17 Oct17 Sep17
Income +0.4% +0.4% to +0.5% -- +0.4% +0.4%
Spending +0.4% +0.3% to +0.6% -- +0.3% +0.9%
Core Prices +0.1% +0.1% to +0.1% -- +0.2% +0.2%
Comments: Personal income is expected to rise by 0.4% in November,
as payrolls increased by 228,000, average weekly hours rose to 34.5
hours, and hourly earnings were up 0.2%. Current dollar PCE is forecast
to rise 0.4%, as retail sales surged by 0.8% in the month and were up
1.0% excluding a 0.2% decline in motor vehicle sales. Core retail sales
(also ex. gas) were up 0.8% in the month, as were sales excluding autos,
gas, building materials and food services, indicating underlying
underlying sales strength. The core PCE price index is expected to post
a 0.1% increase in November following 0.2% gains in the previous two
months, keeping the year/year rate should remain well below the 2%
threshold.
New Home Sales for November (annual rate)
Friday, December 22 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Nov17 Oct17 Sep17
New Homes 658k 640k to 705k -- 685k 645k
Comments: New home sales are expected to slow to a 658,000 annual
rate in November following sharp gains in the previous two months.
Unadjusted sales were up 19.6% from a year earlier before seasonal
adjustment. Home supply rose in October, though not enough to keep up
with sales growth, so the months supply dipped to 4.9 months. Even so,
there should be adequate homes available for sale when demand returns.
University of Michigan Survey for December (final)
Friday, December 22 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Dec17f Dec17p Nov17
Consumer Sent 97.0 96.5 to 97.5 -- 96.8 98.5
Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to be revised up
to a reading of 97.0 in December from 96.8 in the preliminary estimate,
but it would remain below the 98.5 reading in November.
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.