US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 20:06 GMT Dec 29/15:06 EST Dec 29

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.   

Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales for December (mln units, saar)             

 Wednesday, January 3                                    Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Dec17  Nov17  Oct17

 Dom Sales      13.4m      13.2m to 13.6m               --  13.3m  13.8m

     Comments: Domestic-made vehicle sales are expected to tick up      

slightly to a 13.4 million annual rate in December after falling to a   

13.3 million annual rate in November. Seasonal adjustment factors will  

subtract from unadjusted sales in December after adding to them in      

November.                                                               

ISM Manufacturing Index for December                                    

 Wednesday, January 3 at 10:00 a.m. ET                   Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Dec17  Nov17  Oct17

 Mfg ISM         58.2      56.5 to 60.3                 --   58.2   58.7

     Comments: The ISM manufacturing index is expected to hold steady at

58.2 in December, down from the levels seen in September and October,   

but still indicating strength. Most of the regional conditions data     

suggest growth accelerated, but there was some regional declines that   

provide some downside risk.                                             

Construction Spending for November (percent change)                     

 Wednesday, January 3 at 10:00 a.m. ET                   Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Nov17  Oct17  Sep17

 Construction   +0.7%      +0.5% to +1.0%               --  +1.4%  +0.3%

     Comments: Construction spending is expected to rise by 0.7% in     

November. Housing starts rose further in the month, suggesting private  

residential building could post a solid gain.                           

Weekly Jobless Claims for December 30 week                              

 Thursday, January 4 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

                 Median         Range                Dec30  Dec23  Dec16

 Weekly Claims     240k      240k to 240k               --   245k   245k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall  

by 5,000 to 240,000 in the December 30 Christmas week after holding     

steady at 245,000 in the previous week. The four-week moving average    

rose by 1,750 to 237,750. The four-week moving average would rise by    

another 1,000 in the coming week as a 236,000 level in the December 2   

week drops out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct 

and there are no revisions.                                             

Nonfarm Payrolls for December (change in thousands)                     

 Friday, January 5 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Dec17  Nov17  Oct17

 Payrolls       +190k      +170k to +210k               --  +228k  +244k

 Private Job    +185k      +165k to +205k               --  +221k  +247k

 Jobless Rate    4.1%       4.0% to 4.1%                --   4.1%   4.1%

 Hrly Earnings  +0.3%      +0.2% to +0.3%               --  +0.2%  -0.1%

 Avg Wkly Hrs    34.5       34.4 to 34.5                --   34.5   34.4

     Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 190,000 in      

December after an above expectation reading in November. The            

unemployment rate is expected to stay at 4.1%, still very low by        

historical standards. Hourly earnings are forecast to rise 0.3% after a 

0.2% gain, while the average workweek is expected to stay at 34.5 hours 

after climbing to that point in November.                               

Trade in Goods and Services for November (deficit, billion $)           

 Friday, January 5 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:        

              Median           Range               Nov17   Oct17   Sep17

 Trade Gap   -$48.3b      -$49.0b to -$48.1b          -- -$48.7b -$44.9b

     Comments: The international trade gap is expected to narrow        

modestly to $48.3 billion in November after widening sharply to $48.7   

billion in October. The advance estimate of the Census goods trade gap  

widened to $69.7 billion, with exports up 3.0% and imports up 2.7%, so  

the forecast for the headline number suggests analysts expect a wider   

services surplus.                                                       

ISM Non-manufacturing Index for December                                

 Friday, January 5 at 10:00 a.m. ET                      Actual:        

              Median        Range                    Dec17  Nov17  Oct17

 ISM NMI        57.8      57.0 to 58.3                  --   57.4   60.1

     Comments: The ISM nonmanufacturing index is expected to rebound to 

a reading of 57.8 in December after a decline in 57.4 in November. The  

Philadelphia nonmanufacturing index rose to 25.3, while the flash Markit

Services index fell to 52.4.                                            

Factory Orders for November (percent change)                            

 Friday, January 5 at 10:00 a.m. ET                      Actual:        

              Median             Range               Nov17  Oct17  Sep17

 New Orders    +1.0%       +0.6% to +1.4%               --  -0.1%  +1.7%

 Ex Transport   --            -- to  --                 --  +0.8%  +1.1%

     Comments: Factory orders are expected to rise by 1.0% in November. 

Durable goods orders rose 1.3% in the month on a jump in aircraft       

orders, while nondurables orders are expected to post another modest    

gain. Factory orders are expected to be softer excluding the            

transportation component. Durable orders excluding transportation fell  

0.1% in the advance estimate.                                           

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com