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Free AccessMNI BRIEF: China November PMI Rises Further Above 50
MNI US Macro Weekly: Politics To The Fore
US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts
WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the
median forecasts.
Weekly Jobless Claims for January 6 week
Thursday, January 11 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Jan07 Dec30 Dec23
Weekly Claims 245k 240k to 252k -- 250k 247k
Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall
by 5,000 to 245,000 in the January 6 New Year's week, reversing the
previous week's gain that lifted the four-week moving average by 3,500
to 241,750. The four-week moving average would rise by 5,000 in the
coming week, a fourth straight gain, as a 225,000 level in the December
9 week drops out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is
correct and there are no revisions.
Producer Price Index for December (percent change)
Thursday, January 11 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Dec17 Nov17 Oct17
Final Demand +0.2% Flat to +0.3% -- +0.4% +0.4%
Ex Food,Energy +0.2% +0.1% to +0.2% -- +0.3% +0.4%
Comments: Final demand PPI is expected to rise 0.2% in December
after 0.4% increases in the previous three months. Energy prices are
expected to decline after a 4.6% gasoline-led surge in November, while
food prices are expected to rise further after 0.3% gain. Excluding food
and energy prices, PPI is forecast to rise 0.2% after an
above-expectation 0.3% increase in the previous month that came despite
a decline in trade services prices. Excluding trade services as well as
food and energy, PPI is expected to rise modestly.
Treasury Statement for December ($ billions)
Thursday, January 11 at 2:00 p.m ET Actual:
Median Range Dec17 Nov17 Dec16
Balance -$37.5b -$54.0b to -$21.0b -- -$138.5b -$27.3b
Comments: The Treasury is expected to post a $37.5 billion budget
gap in December, up from the $27.3 billion gap in December 2016.
Transfer payments from January shifted in December due to January 1
being a holiday, but as this was the case in both 2016 and 2017, the
comparison should still be valid.
Retail and Food Sales for December (percent change)
Friday, January 12 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Dec17 Nov17 Oct17
Retail Sales +0.4% +0.2% to +0.7% -- +0.8% +0.5%
Ex-Mtr Veh +0.3% +0.1% to +0.6% -- +1.0% +0.4%
Comments: Retail sales are forecast to rise 0.4% in December after
a sharp 0.8% increase in November. Seasonally adjusted industry motor
vehicle sales improved overall in December, while AAA reported that
gasoline prices declined in mid-December from one month earlier. Retail
sales are expected to rise 0.3% excluding motor vehicles after
November's 1.0% gain, as electronics sales were cut back by seasonal
adjustment factors.
Consumer Price Index for December (percent change)
Friday, January 12 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Dec17 Nov17 Oct17
CPI +0.1% Flat to +0.2% -- +0.4% +0.1%
CPI Core +0.2% +0.1% to +0.3% -- +0.1% +0.2%
Comments: The CPI is expected to rise 0.1% in December following a
0.4% rise in November. Analysts expect energy prices to slip after
October's 3.9% rebound due to gasoline prices. AAA reported a pull-back
in mid-month prices from November to December. Food prices are expected
to post a modest increase. The core CPI is forecast to rise 0.2%
following a softer-than-expected 0.1% increase in October.
Business Inventories for November (percent change)
Friday, January 12 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Nov17 Oct17 Sep17
Inventories +0.4% +0.2% to +0.4% -- -0.1% Flat
Comments: Business inventories are expected to rise 0.4% in
November. Factory inventories were already reported as up 0.4% in the
month, while the advance report pointed to a 0.7% gain for wholesale
inventories and a 0.1% rise for retail inventories. Taken together, an
MNI calculation looks for a 0.4% increase for business inventories
before the wholesale release on January 10. As for sales, factory
shipments were up 1.2% and the advance estimate for retail trade sales
was a 0.8% gain, so it appears business sales will be strong this month.
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: M$U$$$]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.