US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.  

GDP for First Quarter (advance estimate)                                

 Friday, April 27 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:        

               Median         Range                  1Q18a   4Q17   3Q17

 GDP           +2.0%      +1.6% to +2.8%                --  +2.9%  +3.2%

 Chain Prices  +2.4%      +2.1% to +2.5%                --  +2.3%  +2.1%

     Comments: First quarter GDP is expected to be up 2.0%, weaker      

than the 2.9% pace in the previous quarter, with the key factor being   

much slower PCE growth as the retail sales data have been incredibly    

soft in recent months. Stronger capital spending and inventory          

investment should provide some offset. First quarter GDP growth is      

typically softer than the fourth quarter due to residual seasonality.   

The chain price index is expected to rise 2.4% in the first quarter     

after a 2.3% fourth quarter gain.                                       

Employment Cost Index for First Quarter (percent change)                

 Friday, April 27 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:        

                 Median       Range                   1Q18   4Q17   3Q17

 ECI             +0.7%    +0.6% to +0.8%                --  +0.6%  +0.7%

     Comments: The ECI is expected to rise by 0.7% in the first quarter 

after a 0.6% gain in the previous quarter, but the year/year pace should

be roughly unchanged at 2.6%.                                           

University of Michigan Survey for April (final)                         

 Friday, April 27 at 10:00 a.m. ET                       Actual:        

                Median           Range              Apr18f Apr18p  Mar18

 Consumer Sent  98.0          97.8 to 98.5              --   97.8  101.4

     Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to be revised up

slightly to 98.0 from 97.8 in the preliminary estimate, remaining below 

the 101.4 reading in March.                                             

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com

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