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US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts 

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT Jun 29/17:06 EST Jun 29
     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 
median forecasts.
Construction Spending for May (percent change)                          
 Monday, July 2 at 10:00 a.m. ET                         Actual:        
               Median         Range                  May18  Apr18  Mar18
 Construction  +0.4%      +0.4% to +0.5%                --  +1.8%  -1.7%
     Comments: Construction spending is expected to rise by 0.4% in May.
Housing starts surged in the month, suggesting private residential      
building moved even higher after a large April gain.                    
ISM Manufacturing Index for June                                        
 Monday, July 2 at 10:00 a.m. ET                         Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Jun18  May18  Apr18
 Mfg ISM       58.2        58.0 to 60.0                 --   58.7   57.3
     Comments: The ISM manufacturing index is expected to soften        
slightly to a reading of 58.2 in June after rebounding to 58.7 in May.  
Regional conditions data and the flash Markit estimate suggest growth   
was a bit stronger in the month.                                        
Factory Orders for May (percent change)                                 
 Tuesday, July 3 at 10:00 a.m. ET                         Actual:       
               Median         Range                  May18  Apr18  Mar18
 New Orders    Flat      -0.2% to +0.2%                 --  -0.8%  +1.7%
 Ex Transport  --            -- to --                   --  +0.4%  +0.5%
     Comments: Factory orders are expected to come in flat in May.      
Durable goods orders fell by 0.6% in the month on a decline in          
nondefense aircraft orders and motor vehicles, while nondurables orders 
are expected to strong due to price related gains in the energy         
components. Durable orders excluding transportation were down 0.3%,     
suggesting factory orders excluding transportation may also be soft.    
Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales for June (mln units, saar)                 
 Tuesday, July 3                                         Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Jun18  May18  Apr18
 Sales Ex GM   --            -- to --                   --   9.9m   9.9m
     Comments: Domestic-made vehicle sales are expected to hold         
relatively steady in June after holding at 9.9 million in May. Seasonal 
adjustment factors will subtract slightly less from June sales than they
did from May sales.                                                     
Weekly Jobless Claims for June 30 week                                  
 Thursday, July 5 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Jun30  Jun23  Jun16
 Weekly Claims 223k         222k to 223k                --   227k   218k
     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall  
by 4,000 to 223,000 in the June 30 week after rising by 9,000 to 227,000
in the previous week, keeping the level in its tight range. The         
four-week moving average would rise by 250 in the coming week as the    
222,000 level in the June 2 week drops out of the calculation, assuming 
the MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions.                 
ISM Non-manufacturing Index for June                                    
 Thursday, July 5 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:       
               Median         Range                  Jun18  May18  Apr18
 ISM NMI       58.0        57.6 to 58.4                 --   58.6   56.8
     Comments: The ISM nonmanufacturing index is expected to pull back  
slightly to a reading of 58.0 in June from 58.6 in May. The Philadelphia
nonmanufacturing index fell to 39.1, while the flash Markit Services    
index fell to 56.5.                                                     
Nonfarm Payrolls for June (change in thousands)                         
 Friday, July 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET                          Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Jun 18 May18  Apr18
 Payrolls      +191k      +180k to +210k                 -- +223k  +159k
 Private Job   +188k      +180k to +210k                 -- +218k  +162k
 Jobless Rate   3.8%       3.7% to 3.8%                  --  3.8%   3.9%
 Hrly Earnings +0.3%      +0.2% to +0.3%                 -- +0.3%  +0.1%
 Avg Wkly Hrs   34.5       34.4 to 34.5                  --  34.5   34.5
     Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 191,000 in June 
after a stronger-than-expected 223,000 rise in May. The unemployment    
rate is expected to hold at 3.8% after falling further to the           
decades-low level in the previous month. Hourly earnings are forecast to
rise by 0.3% for the second month in a row, after the upside surprise   
last month, while the average workweek is expected to stay at 34.5 hours
for the fifth consecutive month.                                        
Trade in Goods and Services for May (deficit, billion $)                
 Friday, July 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET                          Actual:        
               Median         Range                May18   Apr18   Mar18
 Trade Gap     -$43.4b  -$44.0b to -$42.9b            -- -$46.2b -$47.2b
     Comments: The international trade gap is expected to narrow to     
$43.4 billion in May from $46.2 billion in April. The advance estimate  
of the Census goods trade gap narrowed to $64.8 billion, as export      
growth sharply outpaced import growth in the month.                     
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-372-2121; email: shikha.dave@marketnews.com
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