US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.         

GDP for Second Quarter (second estimate)

 Wednesday, August 29 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

               Median         Range                  2Q18s  2Q18a   1Q18

 GDP            +4.0%    +3.9% to +4.2%                 --  +4.1%  +2.2% 

 Chain Prices   +3.0%    +3.0% to +3.8%                 --  +3.0%  +2.0%

          Comments: Second quarter GDP is expected to be revised down 

slightly to a 4.0% pace of growth from the 4.1% advance estimate 

generally on softer PCE growth reflected in the downward adjustment to 

retail sales in May and June. The chain price index is forecast to be 

unrevised at 3.0%. 

     Weekly Jobless Claims for August 25 week                                

 Thursday, August 30 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:       

               Median         Range                  Aug25  Aug18  Aug11

 Weekly Claims   213k     210k to 214k                  --   210k   212k

          Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to 

rebound by 3,000 to 213,000 in the August 25 week after a decrease of 

2,000 to 210,000 in the previous week, just above the recent low of 

208,000. The four-week moving average would fall by 1,500 in the coming 

week as the 219,000 level in the July 28 week rolls out of the 

calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no 

revisions. 

     Personal Income for July (percent change)                          

 Thursday, August 30 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Jul18  Jun18  May18

 Income         +0.3%    +0.2% to +0.4%                 --  +0.4%  +0.4% 

 Spending       +0.4%    +0.3% to +0.6%                 --  +0.4%  +0.5%

 Core Prices    +0.2%    +0.1% to +0.2%                 --  +0.1%  +0.2%

          Comments: Personal income is expected to rise by 0.3% in July, as 

payrolls rose by 157,000 and hourly earnings rose 0.3%, while average 

weekly hours fell to 34.5 hours. Current dollar PCE is forecast to rise 

by 0.4% after a softer-than-expected 0.4% June gain. Total retail sales 

rose by 0.5% in the month and were up 0.6% excluding a 0.2% gain in 

motor vehicle sales. Retail sales excluding autos, gas, building 

materials and food services were rose 0.5% after a 0.1% June decline. 

The core PCE price index is expected to post a 0.2% increase in June, so 

the y/y rate could tick back up to 2.0% due to a softer 0.1% increase a 

year earlier. 

     MNI Chicago Report for August (index)                                 

 Friday, August 31 at 9:45 a.m. ET                       Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Aug18  Jul18  Jun18 

 MNI Chicago     63.8     62.0 to 64.8                  --   65.5   64.1

          Comments: The MNI Chicago PMI is expected to slide back to a 

reading of 63.8 in August after rising further to 65.5 in July. Other 

regional data already released have been generally softer, with sharp 

declines in the Kansas City and Philadelphia Fed regions and only a 

modest gain in the NY Fed data. 

     University of Michigan Survey for August (final)          

 Friday, August 31 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:        

                Median        Range                 Aug18f Aug18p  Jul18

 Consumer Sent    95.5    95.3 to 96.0                  --   95.3   97.9

          Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to be revised up 

to 95.5 from the reading of 95.3 in the preliminary estimate.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com

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