US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.         

Housing Starts for August (annual rate, million)                        

 Wednesday, September 19 at 8:30 a.m. ET                 Actual:        

           Median            Range                   Aug18  Jul18  Jun18

 Starts    1.240m      1.220m to 1.253m                 -- 1.168m 1.158m

     Comments: The seasonally adjusted pace of housing starts is        

expected to rise further to a 1.245 million annual rate in August after 

moving up slightly in July. Multi-family building is seen as key upside 

factor. The NAHB index fell to 67 in August. As inventories remain      

tight, builders will likely find it advantageous to boost output. The   

pace of building permits is expected to rise to a 1.320 million annual  

rate from the revised 1.303 million rate in July.                       

Weekly Jobless Claims for September 15 week                             

 Thursday, September 20 at 8:30 a.m. ET                   Actual:       

               Median         Range                  Sep15  Sep08  Sep01

 Weekly Claims   208k     205k to 208k                  --   204k   205k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise  

by 4,000 to a still-low 208,000 level in the September 15 employment    

survey week after a decrease to 204,000 in the previous week, a 49-year 

low. Claims were at a level of 210,000 in the August 18 employment      

survey week. The four-week moving average would fall by 500 in the      

coming week as that 210,000 level rolls out of the calculation, assuming

the MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions. There will be no

impact from Hurricane Florence in this week's data, but it may begin to 

show up in the following week's data.                                   

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Index for September (diffusion index)      

 Thursday, September 20 at 8:30 a.m. ET                  Actual:        

                 Median        Range                 Sep18  Aug18  Jul18

 Phila Fed         20.0    18.0 to 21.1                 --   11.9   25.7

     Comments: The Philadelphia Fed index is expected to rise to a      

reading of 20.0 in September after falling sharply to 11.9 in August.   

Existing-home Sales for August (annual rate)                            

 Thursday, September 20 at 10:00 a.m. ET                 Actual:        

                 Median       Range                  Aug18  Jul18  Jun18

 Home Resales     5.35m  5.32m to 5.61m                 --  5.34m  5.38m

     Comments: The pace of existing home sales is expected to tick up   

very slightly to a 5.35 million annual rate in August after slipping    

further to a 5.34 million rate in July. Pending home sales fell by 0.7% 

in July, a negative sign for existing home sales. The supply of homes   

for sale remains much too low to match demand and bring down prices.    

Leading Indicators for August (percent change)                          

 Thursday, September 20 at 10:00 a.m. ET                   Actual:      

                 Median         Range                Aug18  Jul18  Jun18

 Leading Index    +0.5%    +0.5% to +0.5%               --  +0.6%  +0.5%

     Comments: The index of leading indicators is forecast to rise by   

0.5% in August. Positive contributions are expected from gains in stock 

prices, the ISM new orders index, and consumer expectations, and        

slightly lower initial jobless claims. A shorter factory workweek could 

provide some offset.                                                    

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-372-2121; email: shikha.dave@marketnews.com

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