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Free AccessUS Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts
WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the
median forecasts.
Nonfarm Payrolls for September (change in thousands)
Friday, October 5 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Sep18 Aug18 Jul18
Payrolls +188k +163k to +220k -- +201k +147k
Private Jobs +185k +160k to +206k -- +204k +153k
Jobless Rate 3.8% 3.8% to 3.9% -- 3.9% 3.9%
Hrly Earnings +0.3% +0.2% to +0.4% -- +0.4% +0.3%
Avg Wkly Hrs 34.5 34.5 to 34.5 -- 34.5 34.5
Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 188,000 in
September after a stronger-than-expected 201,000 rise in August. The
effects of Hurricane Florence may be limited because it occurred very
late in the survey week. The unemployment rate is expected to slip to
3.8% after staying at 3.9% in August after rounding. Hourly earnings are
forecast to rise by 0.3% after solid gains in the previous two months,
but a 0.5% gain in September 2017 due to the hurricanes that month
should reduce the year/year rate this year. The average workweek is
expected to hold steady for another month at 34.5 hours.
Trade in Goods and Services for August (deficit, billion $)
Friday, October 5 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Aug18 Jul18 Jun18
Trade Gap -$53.4b -$54.0b to -$47.2b -- -$50.1b -$45.7b
Comments: The international trade gap is expected to widen to $53.4
billion in August from $50.1 billion in July. The advance estimate of
the Census goods trade gap widened further to $75.8 billion, as exports
fell and imports rose.
Consumer Credit for August (dollar change, billions)
Friday, October 5 at 3:00 p.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Aug18 Jul18 Jun18
Cons Cred +$14.5b +$10.0b to +$16.0b -- +$16.6b +$8.5b
Comments: Consumer credit is expected to rise by $14.5 billion in
August after a solid $16.6 billion gain in July. Retail sales were up
only 0.1% in August overall and 0.3% excluding a 0.8% decline in motor
vehicle sales, suggesting consumer credit growth slowed.
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.