US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.         

Nonfarm Payrolls for September (change in thousands)                     

 Friday, October 5 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:        

               Median         Range                 Sep18  Aug18  Jul18 

 Payrolls       +188k    +163k to +220k                --  +201k  +147k 

 Private Jobs   +185k    +160k to +206k                --  +204k  +153k

 Jobless Rate    3.8%     3.8% to 3.9%                 --   3.9%   3.9%

 Hrly Earnings  +0.3%    +0.2% to +0.4%                --  +0.4%  +0.3%

 Avg Wkly Hrs    34.5     34.5 to 34.5                 --   34.5   34.5

     Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 188,000 in 

September after a stronger-than-expected 201,000 rise in August. The 

effects of Hurricane Florence may be limited because it occurred very 

late in the survey week. The unemployment rate is expected to slip to 

3.8% after staying at 3.9% in August after rounding. Hourly earnings are 

forecast to rise by 0.3% after solid gains in the previous two months, 

but a 0.5% gain in September 2017 due to the hurricanes that month 

should reduce the year/year rate this year. The average workweek is 

expected to hold steady for another month at 34.5 hours. 

Trade in Goods and Services for August (deficit, billion $)           

 Friday, October 5 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:        

               Median         Range                Aug18   Jul18   Jun18

 Trade Gap    -$53.4b  -$54.0b to -$47.2b             -- -$50.1b -$45.7b

     Comments: The international trade gap is expected to widen to $53.4 

billion in August from $50.1 billion in July. The advance estimate of 

the Census goods trade gap widened further to $75.8 billion, as exports 

fell and imports rose. 

Consumer Credit for August (dollar change, billions)                   

 Friday, October 5 at 3:00 p.m. ET                       Actual:        

              Median        Range                  Aug18   Jul18   Jun18

 Cons Cred   +$14.5b +$10.0b to +$16.0b               -- +$16.6b  +$8.5b

     Comments: Consumer credit is expected to rise by $14.5 billion in 

August after a solid $16.6 billion gain in July. Retail sales were up 

only 0.1% in August overall and 0.3% excluding a 0.8% decline in motor 

vehicle sales, suggesting consumer credit growth slowed.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com

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