Free Trial

US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 
median forecasts.         
Industrial Production for September (percent change)
 Tuesday, October 16 at 9:15 a.m. ET                     Actual:        
              Median          Range                  Sep18  Aug18  Jul18
 Ind Prod      +0.2%    +0.1% to +0.6%                  --  +0.4%  +0.4% 
 Cap Util      78.2%    78.0% to 78.3%                  --  78.1%  77.9% 
     Comments: Industrial production is expected to rise by 0.2% in 
September on a utilities surge that should be offset by softer readings 
for manufacturing and mining production. Factory payrolls rose by 18,000 
in September, but auto production jobs were flat and the factory 
workweek shortened to 40.8 hours. The ISM production index rose to 63.9 
in the current month from 63.3 in the previous month. Utilities 
production is expected to rise further in the month due to unseasonably 
warm temperatures, while mining production is forecast to maintain its 
string of gains, albeit a bit slower. Capacity utilization is forecast 
to tick up to 78.2% from 78.1% in August. 
Housing Starts for September (annual rate, million) 
 Wednesday, October 17 at 8:30 a.m. ET                   Actual:        
           Median            Range                   Sep18  Aug18  Jul18
 Starts    1.230m      1.187m to 1.251m                 -- 1.282m 1.174m 
     Comments: The seasonally adjusted pace of housing starts is 
expected to slow to a 1.230 million annual rate in September after 
moving up slightly in August. The NAHB index held steady at 67 in 
September. As inventories remain tight, builders will likely find it 
advantageous to boost output. The pace of building permits is expected 
to rise to a 1.266 million annual rate after falling sharply in August. 
Rebuilding following Hurricane Florence should lift permits and starts 
in coming months. 
Weekly Jobless Claims for October 13 week                                
 Thursday, October 18 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:       
               Median         Range                  Oct15  Oct06  Sep29
 Weekly Claims   213k     210k to 215k                  --   214k   207k
     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall 
by only 1,000 to a 213,000 level in the October 13 employment survey 
week after an increase of 7,000 to a still-low 214,000 level in the 
previous week. While the impact of Hurricane Florence should continue to 
move out of the data, Hurricane Michael hit Florida on October 10 and 
should lift initial claims further and impact the survey week for 
payrolls. The four-week moving average would rise by 2,750 in the coming 
week as the recent low 202,000 level in the September 15 employment 
survey week rolls out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is 
correct and there are no revisions. 
Philadelphia Federal Reserve Index for October (diffusion index)
 Thursday, October 18 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        
                 Median        Range                 Oct18  Sep18  Aug18
 Phila Fed         18.0    16.2 to 20.0                 --   22.9   11.9
     Comments: The Philadelphia Fed index is expected to slip to a 
reading of 18.0 in October after rebounding to 22.9 in September.
Leading Indicators for September (percent change)
 Thursday, October 18 at 10:00 a.m. ET                   Actual:
                 Median         Range                Sep18  Aug18  Jul18
 Leading Index    +0.4%    +0.4% to +0.4%               --  +0.4%  +0.7%
     Comments: The index of leading indicators is forecast to rise by 
0.4% in September. Positive contributions are expected from increases in 
stock prices and consumer expectations. 
Existing-home Sales for September (annual rate)                           
 Friday, October 19 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:
                 Median       Range                  Sep18  Aug18  Jul18 
 Home Resales     5.30m   5.27m to 5.38m                --  5.34m  5.34m
     Comments: The pace of existing home sales is expected to slip to a 
5.30 million annual rate in September after holding steady in August. 
Pending home sales fell by 1.8% in August, a negative sign for existing 
home sales.
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$]

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.