US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT Oct 16/17:06 EST Oct 16

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.         

Housing Starts for September (annual rate, million)                     

 Wednesday, October 17 at 8:30 a.m. ET                   Actual:        

           Median            Range                   Sep18  Aug18  Jul18

 Starts    1.220m      1.181m to 1.250m                 -- 1.282m 1.174m

     Comments: The seasonally adjusted pace of housing starts is        

expected to slow to a 1.220 million annual rate in September after      

moving up slightly in August. The NAHB index held steady at 67 in       

September. As inventories remain tight, builders will likely find it    

advantageous to boost output. The pace of building permits is expected  

to rise to a 1.260 million annual rate after falling sharply in August. 

Rebuilding following Hurricane Florence should lift permits and starts  

in coming months.                                                       

Weekly Jobless Claims for October 13 week                               

 Thursday, October 18 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Oct15  Oct06  Sep29

 Weekly Claims   210k     205k to 216k                  --   214k   207k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall  

by 4,000 to a 210,000 level in the October 13 employment survey         

week after an increase of 7,000 to a still-low 214,000 level in the     

previous week. While the impact of Hurricane Florence should continue to

move out of the data, Hurricane Michael hit Florida on October 10 and   

should lift initial claims further and impact the survey week for       

payrolls. The four-week moving average would rise by 2,000 in the coming

week as the recent low 202,000 level in the September 15 employment     

survey week rolls out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is  

correct and there are no revisions.                                     

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Index for October (diffusion index)        

 Thursday, October 18 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

                 Median        Range                 Oct18  Sep18  Aug18

 Phila Fed         18.5    16.2 to 20.0                 --   22.9   11.9

     Comments: The Philadelphia Fed index is expected to slip to a      

reading of 18.5 in October after rebounding to 22.9 in September.       

Leading Indicators for September (percent change)                       

 Thursday, October 18 at 10:00 a.m. ET                   Actual:        

                 Median         Range                Sep18  Aug18  Jul18

 Leading Index    +0.5%    +0.4% to +0.6%               --  +0.4%  +0.7%

     Comments: The index of leading indicators is forecast to rise by   

0.5% in September. Positive contributions are expected from increases in

stock prices and consumer expectations.                                 

Existing-home Sales for September (annual rate)                         

 Friday, October 19 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

                 Median       Range                  Sep18  Aug18  Jul18

 Home Resales     5.27m   5.25m to 5.38m                --  5.34m  5.34m

     Comments: The pace of existing home sales is expected to slip to a 

5.27 million annual rate in September after holding steady in August.   

Pending home sales fell by 1.8% in August, a negative sign for existing 

home sales.                                                             

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: shikha.dave@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]