US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts. 

Weekly Jobless Claims for October 20 week                               

 Thursday, October 25 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Oct22  Oct15  Oct06

 Weekly Claims   215k     210k to 220k                  --   210k   215k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to       

rebound by 5,000 to a 215,000 level in the October 20 week after a      

decrease of 5,000 to 210,000 level in the previous week. The impact of  

Hurricane Michael is likely to spread out over several weeks, so the    

temporary drop is not surprising. The four-week moving average would    

hold steady in the coming week as the 215,000 level in the September 22 

rolls out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and  

there are no revisions.                                                 

Durable Goods Orders for September (percent change)                     

 Thursday, October 25 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Sep18  Aug18  Jul18

 New Orders     -1.0%    -2.6% to +1.3%                 --  +4.4%  -1.2%

 Ex-Transport   +0.5%    -0.5% to +1.0%                 --   Flat  +0.2%

     Comments: Durable goods are expected to fall by 1.0% in September  

after a revised 4.4% surge in August. Boeing reported 65 orders in      

September, down from 99 orders in August, so transportation orders      

should lead the headline decline. Durable goods orders excluding        

transportation orders are expected to rise by 0.5%.                     

GDP for Third Quarter (advance estimate)                                

 Friday, October 26 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:        

               Median         Range                  3Q18a   2Q18   1Q18

 GDP            +3.3%    +2.9% to +3.6%                 --  +4.2%  +2.2%

 Chain Prices   +1.9%    +1.7% to +2.1%                 --  +3.0%  +2.0%

     Comments: Analysts see a 3.3% increase for third quarter GDP in the

advance estimate, softer than the 4.2% gain in the second quarter, but  

still above the first quarter. The key factors are expected to be softer

business investment and net exports than in the previous quarter, with  

the latter offering payback for the strong export growth in the second  

quarter ahead of the tariff implementation. Consumption is expected to  

again be a very positive factor in the headline number. The chain price 

index is expected to rise by 1.9% in the third quarter after a 3.0% gain

in the previous quarter.                                                

University of Michigan Survey for October (final)                       

 Friday, October 26 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

                Median        Range                 Oct18f Oct18p  Sep18

 Consumer Sent    99.0    98.6 to 99.5                  --   99.0  100.1

     Comments: The University of Michigan Sentiment index is expected to

be unrevised at a reading of 99.0, down from September but still solidly

ahead of readings in the summer.                                        

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: shikha.dave@marketnews.com

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