US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.         

ISM Non-manufacturing Index for October 

 Monday, November 5 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Oct18  Sep18  Aug18

 ISM NMI         59.3      58.0 to 60.6                 --   61.6   58.5

     Comments: The ISM nonmanufacturing index is expected to fall to a 

reading of 59.3 in October after rising further to 61.1 in September. 

The Philadelphia nonmanufacturing index rose very slightly to 37.6, 

while the flash Markit Services index rose to 54.7 from 53.5 in 

September. 

Consumer Credit for September (dollar change, billions)                   

 Wednesday, November 7 at 3:00 p.m. ET                   Actual:        

              Median        Range                  Sep18   Aug18   Jul18

 Cons Cred   +$16.0b   +$14.9b to +$17.0b             -- +$20.1b +$16.6b

     Comments: Consumer credit is expected to rise by $16.0 billion in 

September after a solid $20.1 billion gain in August. Retail sales were 

up 0.1% in September overall and down 0.1% excluding a 0.8% rise in 

motor vehicle sales, suggesting consumer credit growth slowed. 

Weekly Jobless Claims for November 3 week                                

 Thursday, November 8 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:       

               Median         Range                  Nov03  Oct27  Oct20

 Weekly Claims   213k      213k to 213k                 --   214k   216k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall 

by 1,000 to a 213,000 level in the November 3 week after a decrease of 

2,000 to 214,000 level in the previous week. The impact of Hurricane 

Michael may reappear over the next several weeks. The four-week moving 

average would fall by 250 in the coming week as the 215,000 level in the 

October 6 rolls out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is 

correct and there are no revisions. 

Producer Price Index for October (percent change)

 Friday, November 9 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:        

                 Median         Range                Oct18  Sep18  Aug18

 Final Demand     +0.3%    +0.2% to +0.3%               --  +0.2%  -0.1% 

 Ex Food,Energy   +0.2%    +0.2% to +0.2%               --  +0.2%  -0.1%

     Comments: Final demand PPI is expected to rise 0.3% in October 

after a 0.2% September increase, showing some impact from Hurricane 

Michael on food and energy prices. Energy prices are expected to post a 

rebound following a 0.8% September decrease, while food prices are 

expected to tick up after a further 0.6% decline. Excluding food and 

energy prices, PPI is forecast to rise 0.2% after a 0.2% September 

increase. 

University of Michigan Survey for November (preliminary)          

 Friday, November 9 at 10:00 a.m. ET                      Actual:        

                Median        Range                 Nov18p  Oct18  Sep18

 Consumer Sent    99.0     96.5 to 99.1                --    98.6  100.1

     Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to rise to 99.0 

in early-November from 98.6 in October. The sharp stock market declines 

in late-October put a damper on confidence.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com

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