US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.    

Consumer Price Index for October (percent change)                       

 Wednesday, November 14 at 8:30 a.m. ET                  Actual:        

              Median         Range                   Oct18  Sep18  Aug18

 CPI           +0.3%    +0.2% to +0.4%                  --  +0.1%  +0.2%

 CPI Core      +0.2%    +0.2% to +0.3%                  --  +0.1%  +0.1%

     Comments: The CPI is expected to rise 0.3% in October after a      

smaller-than-expected 0.1% gain in September. The impact of Hurricane   

Michael is likely to be seen in a rebound in energy prices, reflecting  

damage to some energy production facilities. Food prices could see an   

impact as well. AAA reported a rise in mid-month prices from September, 

which could lift seasonally adjusted CPI gasoline prices after a 0.2%   

decline in the previous month. The core CPI is forecast to rise 0.2%    

following softer-than-expected 0.1% increases in both August and        

September. Analysts expect a rebound in used vehicle prices to add to   

the core reading.                                                       

Weekly Jobless Claims for November 10 week                              

 Thursday, November 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:       

               Median         Range                  Nov10  Nov03  Oct27

 Weekly Claims   214k     210k to 218k                  --   214k   215k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to be    

unchanged from last week's 214,000 level. The four-week moving average  

would rise by 1000 in the coming week as the 210,000 level in the       

October 13 rolls out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is   

correct and there are no revisions.                                     

Retail and Food Sales for October (percent change)                      

 Thursday, November 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                   Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Oct18  Sep18  Aug18

 Retail Sales   +0.5%    +0.2% to +0.8%                 --  +0.1%  +0.1%

 Ex-Mtr Veh     +0.5%    +0.2% to +0.8%                 --  -0.1%  +0.2%

     Comments: Retail sales are forecast to rise 0.5% in October after a

weaker than expected 0.1% gain in September. Not seasonally adjusted    

industry motor vehicle sales improved modestly in October, while AAA    

reported that gasoline prices rose slightly in mid-October from one     

month earlier. Motor vehicle sales should pick up further in the South  

as part of the hurricane recovery. Retail sales are expected to be up   

0.5% excluding motor vehicles after a 0.1% decline in September.        

Empire State Index for November (diffusion index)                       

 Thursday, November 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                   Actual:        

                 Median        Range                 Nov18  Oct18  Sep18

 Empire Index      20.0    15.0 to 22.2                 --   21.1   19.0

     Comments: The Empire State index is expected to fall slightly to   

20.0 in November after a modest rebound to 21.1 in October.             

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Index for November (diffusion index)       

 Thursday, November 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:       

                 Median        Range                 Nov18  Oct18  Sep18

 Phila Fed         20.0    15.0 to 22.0                 --   22.2   22.9

     Comments: The Philadelphia Fed index is expected to fall to a      

reading of 20.0 in November after holding roughly steady at 22.2 in     

October.                                                                

Business Inventories for September (percent change)                     

 Thursday, November 15 at 10:00 a.m. ET                    Actual:      

              Median           Range                 Sep18  Aug18  Jul18

 Inventories   +0.3%      +0.3% to +0.3%                --  +0.5%  +0.7%

     Comments: Business inventories are expected to rise by 0.3% in     

September. Factory inventories were already reported as up 0.5% in the  

month, while wholesale inventories rose 0.4%, and the advance report    

showed retail inventories rose by 0.1%. Taken together, an MNI          

calculation looks for a 0.3% increase for business inventories at this  

point, so the median forecast suggests analysts see no revision to      

retail inventories. As for sales, factory shipments rose 0.9% and       

wholesale sales were up 0.2%, while the advance estimate for retail     

trade sales was a 0.4% gain, so the data suggest business sales were up 

0.5% in the month pending any revision to retail trade sales.           

Industrial Production for October (percent change)                      

 Friday, November 16 at 9:15 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

              Median          Range                  Oct18  Sep18  Aug18

 Ind Prod      +0.1%     -0.4% to +0.3%                 --  +0.3%  +0.4%

 Cap Util      78.1%     77.9% to 78.3%                 --  78.1%  78.1%

     Comments: Industrial production is expected to hold steady in      

October after a 0.3% gain in September. The impacts of Hurricane Michael

may not center on mining production, as they have with past hurricanes, 

but rather on weaker readings for the manufacturing and utilities       

portions of the report. Factory payrolls rose by 32,000 in October,     

while auto production jobs rose by 7,000. However, the factory workweek 

was shorter at 40.8 hours, down slightly from 40.9 hours in September.  

The ISM production index dipped to 59.9 in the current month from 63.9  

in the previous month. Utilities production is expected remain nearly   

steady for a second straight month, though warmer-than-usual            

temperatures add some upside risk. Mining production is expected to     

continue its string of gains. Capacity utilization is forecast to stay  

at 78.1%.                                                               

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: shikha.dave@marketnews.com

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