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US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 
median forecasts.    
Consumer Price Index for October (percent change)                       
 Wednesday, November 14 at 8:30 a.m. ET                  Actual:        
              Median         Range                   Oct18  Sep18  Aug18
 CPI           +0.3%    +0.2% to +0.4%                  --  +0.1%  +0.2%
 CPI Core      +0.2%    +0.2% to +0.3%                  --  +0.1%  +0.1%
     Comments: The CPI is expected to rise 0.3% in October after a      
smaller-than-expected 0.1% gain in September. The impact of Hurricane   
Michael is likely to be seen in a rebound in energy prices, reflecting  
damage to some energy production facilities. Food prices could see an   
impact as well. AAA reported a rise in mid-month prices from September, 
which could lift seasonally adjusted CPI gasoline prices after a 0.2%   
decline in the previous month. The core CPI is forecast to rise 0.2%    
following softer-than-expected 0.1% increases in both August and        
September. Analysts expect a rebound in used vehicle prices to add to   
the core reading.                                                       
Weekly Jobless Claims for November 10 week                              
 Thursday, November 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:       
               Median         Range                  Nov10  Nov03  Oct27
 Weekly Claims   214k     210k to 218k                  --   214k   215k
     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to be    
unchanged from last week's 214,000 level. The four-week moving average  
would rise by 1000 in the coming week as the 210,000 level in the       
October 13 rolls out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is   
correct and there are no revisions.                                     
Retail and Food Sales for October (percent change)                      
 Thursday, November 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                   Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Oct18  Sep18  Aug18
 Retail Sales   +0.5%    +0.2% to +0.8%                 --  +0.1%  +0.1%
 Ex-Mtr Veh     +0.5%    +0.2% to +0.8%                 --  -0.1%  +0.2%
     Comments: Retail sales are forecast to rise 0.5% in October after a
weaker than expected 0.1% gain in September. Not seasonally adjusted    
industry motor vehicle sales improved modestly in October, while AAA    
reported that gasoline prices rose slightly in mid-October from one     
month earlier. Motor vehicle sales should pick up further in the South  
as part of the hurricane recovery. Retail sales are expected to be up   
0.5% excluding motor vehicles after a 0.1% decline in September.        
Empire State Index for November (diffusion index)                       
 Thursday, November 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                   Actual:        
                 Median        Range                 Nov18  Oct18  Sep18
 Empire Index      20.0    15.0 to 22.2                 --   21.1   19.0
     Comments: The Empire State index is expected to fall slightly to   
20.0 in November after a modest rebound to 21.1 in October.             
Philadelphia Federal Reserve Index for November (diffusion index)       
 Thursday, November 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:       
                 Median        Range                 Nov18  Oct18  Sep18
 Phila Fed         20.0    15.0 to 22.0                 --   22.2   22.9
     Comments: The Philadelphia Fed index is expected to fall to a      
reading of 20.0 in November after holding roughly steady at 22.2 in     
October.                                                                
Business Inventories for September (percent change)                     
 Thursday, November 15 at 10:00 a.m. ET                    Actual:      
              Median           Range                 Sep18  Aug18  Jul18
 Inventories   +0.3%      +0.3% to +0.3%                --  +0.5%  +0.7%
     Comments: Business inventories are expected to rise by 0.3% in     
September. Factory inventories were already reported as up 0.5% in the  
month, while wholesale inventories rose 0.4%, and the advance report    
showed retail inventories rose by 0.1%. Taken together, an MNI          
calculation looks for a 0.3% increase for business inventories at this  
point, so the median forecast suggests analysts see no revision to      
retail inventories. As for sales, factory shipments rose 0.9% and       
wholesale sales were up 0.2%, while the advance estimate for retail     
trade sales was a 0.4% gain, so the data suggest business sales were up 
0.5% in the month pending any revision to retail trade sales.           
Industrial Production for October (percent change)                      
 Friday, November 16 at 9:15 a.m. ET                     Actual:        
              Median          Range                  Oct18  Sep18  Aug18
 Ind Prod      +0.1%     -0.4% to +0.3%                 --  +0.3%  +0.4%
 Cap Util      78.1%     77.9% to 78.3%                 --  78.1%  78.1%
     Comments: Industrial production is expected to hold steady in      
October after a 0.3% gain in September. The impacts of Hurricane Michael
may not center on mining production, as they have with past hurricanes, 
but rather on weaker readings for the manufacturing and utilities       
portions of the report. Factory payrolls rose by 32,000 in October,     
while auto production jobs rose by 7,000. However, the factory workweek 
was shorter at 40.8 hours, down slightly from 40.9 hours in September.  
The ISM production index dipped to 59.9 in the current month from 63.9  
in the previous month. Utilities production is expected remain nearly   
steady for a second straight month, though warmer-than-usual            
temperatures add some upside risk. Mining production is expected to     
continue its string of gains. Capacity utilization is forecast to stay  
at 78.1%.                                                               
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: shikha.dave@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$]

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