US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.   

Conference Board Consumer Confidence for November (index)

 Tuesday, November 27 at 10:00 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Nov18  Oct18  Sep18

 Confidence     135.8    134.9 to 137.6                 --  137.9  135.3

     Comments: The index of consumer confidence is expected to slip to a 

reading of 135.8 in November after advancing further in October. The 

Michigan Sentiment index fell to 97.5 in November from 98.6 in October. 

GDP for Third Quarter (second estimate)

 Wednesday, November 28 at 8:30 a.m. ET                  Actual:        

               Median         Range                  3Q18s  3Q18a   2Q18

 GDP            +3.6%    +3.5% to +3.7%                 --  +3.5%  +4.2% 

 Chain Prices   +1.8%    +1.7% to +1.8%                 --  +1.7%  +3.0%

     Comments: GDP for the third quarter is expected to be revised up 

very slightly to a 3.6% increase from a 3.5% gain in the advance 

estimate, with only modest adjustments to the components. The chain 

price index is expected to be revised up slightly to a 1.8% pace. 

New Home Sales for October (annual rate)

 Wednesday, November 28 at 10:00 a.m. ET                 Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Oct18  Sep18  Aug18

 New Homes       576k     560k to 595k                  --   553k   585k 

     Comments: New home sales are expected to rebound to a 576,000 

annual rate in October following a pullback in September. Unadjusted 

sales were down 18.0% from a year earlier in September. Meanwhile, home 

supply was up 2.8% month/month and 16.8% year/year, so prices gains 

should remain modest. 

Weekly Jobless Claims for November 24 week                                

 Thursday, November 29 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:       

               Median         Range                  Nov24  Nov17  Nov10

 Weekly Claims   220k     214k to 222k                  --   224k   221k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall 

by 4,000 to a 220,000 level in the November 24 holiday week after an 

increase of 3,000 to 224,000 level in the previous week. The level of 

claims has been elevated above the prevailing trend in recent weeks, 

possibly due to seasonal adjustment difficulties around the Veteran's 

Day holiday. The four-week moving average would rise by 1,250 in the 

coming week as the 215,000 level in the October 27 rolls out of the 

calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no 

revisions. 

Personal Income for October (percent change)                          

 Thursday, November 29 at 8:30 a.m. ET                   Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Oct18  Sep18  Aug18

 Income         +0.4%    +0.4% to +0.6%                 --  +0.2%  +0.4% 

 Spending       +0.5%    +0.4% to +0.6%                 --  +0.4%  +0.5%

 Core Prices    +0.1%    +0.1% to +0.2%                 --  +0.2%   Flat

     Comments: Personal income is expected to rise by a solid 0.4% in 

October on strong inputs in the month, as payrolls rose by 250,000, 

hourly earnings rose by 0.2% and average weekly hours rose to 34.5 

hours. Current dollar PCE is forecast to rise by 0.5% after a 0.4% 

September gain. Total retail sales were up 0.8% in the month after a 

0.1% December decline. Sales were still up 0.7% in October excluding a 

1.1% rebound in motor vehicle sales, with widespread gains in the other 

categories. Retail sales excluding autos, gas, building materials and 

food services were up 0.3% after a 0.3% gain in September. The core PCE 

price index is expected to post a 0.1% increase in September, which 

would allow the year/year rate to dip to 1.9% after rounding due to a 

0.3% month/month rise in October 2017. 

MNI Chicago Report for November (index)                                 

 Friday, November 30 at 9:45 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Nov18  Oct18  Sep18

 MNI Chicago     58.5     57.0 to 60.0                  --   58.4   60.4

     Comments: The MNI Chicago PMI is expected to rise very slightly to 

a reading of 58.5 in November after a small downtick to 58.4 in October. 

Other regional data already released have been mixed, with the Empire 

State index up and the Philadelphia Fed index down.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com

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