US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.         

Weekly Jobless Claims for December 29 week                                

 Thursday, January 3 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:       

               Median         Range                  Dec29  Dec22  Dec15

 Weekly Claims   220k     215k to 220k                  --   216k   217k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise 

to 220,000 in the December 29 week after a decrease of 1,000 to 216,000 

level in the previous week. The prevalence of holidays in November and 

December make seasonal adjustment difficult at the end of the year. The 

four-week moving average would fall in the coming week as the 233,000 

level in the December 1 week rolls out of the calculation, assuming the 

MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions. 

Construction Spending for November (percent change)                        

 Thursday, January 3 at 10:00 a.m. ET                    Actual:

               Median         Range                  Nov18  Oct18  Sep18

 Construction   +0.3%     Flat to +0.5%                 --  -0.1%  -0.1%

     Comments: Construction spending is expected to rise by 0.3% in 

November after small declines in the previous two months. Housing starts 

rebounded in the month, a positive for private residential building. 

ISM Manufacturing Index for December                                       

 Thursday, January 3 at 10:00 a.m. ET                    Actual:

               Median         Range                  Dec18  Nov18  Oct18

 Mfg ISM         58.0     56.5 to 58.3                  --   59.3   57.7

     Comments: The ISM manufacturing index is expected to fall to a 

reading of 58.0 in December after rebounding to 59.3 in November. 

Regional conditions data have suggested slower growth, while the Markit 

flash reading slipped. 

Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales for December (mln units, saar)                  

 Thursday, January 3                                     Actual:

               Median         Range                  Dec18  Nov18  Oct18

 Sales Ex GM                                            --   9.8m  10.1m

     Comments: The SAAR for domestic-made vehicle sales is expected to 

rebound modestly in December after declning further in November. 

Seasonal adjustment factors will be a subtraction from December 

unadjusted sales after being a small addition in November. 

Nonfarm Payrolls for December (change in thousands)                     

 Friday, January 4 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Dec18  Nov18  Oct18 

 Payrolls        180k     166k to 200k                 --  +155k  +237k

 Private Jobs    175k     162k to 195k                 --  +161k  +251k

 Jobless Rate    3.7%     3.6% to 3.8%                 --   3.7%   3.7%

 Hrly Earnings  +0.3%    +0.2% to +0.3%                --  +0.2%  +0.1%

 Avg Wkly Hrs    34.5     34.4 to 34.5                 --   34.4   34.5

     Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 180,000 in 

December after a weaker-than-expected 155,000 rise in November, a 

payback from the previous month's sharp increase. The unemployment rate 

is expected to hold steady at the 3.7% level from the previous three 

months, with annual revisions to the household survey possibly altering 

the recent picture. Hourly earnings are forecast to rise 0.3%. A 0.4% 

gain in December 2017 provides a high hurdle for the monthly change this 

year to reach to keep the 3.1% year/year rate intact. The average 

workweek is expected to rise to 34.5 hours after dipping to 34.4 hours 

in November.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com

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