US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.         

Weekly Jobless Claims for January 5 week                                

 Thursday, January 10 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:       

               Median         Range                  Jan05  Dec29  Dec22

 Weekly Claims   220k     215k to 215k                  --   231k   221k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall 

to 220,000 in the January 5 week after an increase of 10,000 to 231,000 

level in the previous week. The prevalence of holidays in December make 

seasonal adjustment difficult at the end of the year. The four-week 

moving average would rise in the coming week as the 206,000 level in the 

December 8 week rolls out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast 

is correct and there are no revisions. 

Consumer Price Index for December (percent change)                       

 Friday, January 11 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:        

              Median         Range                   Dec18  Nov18  Oct18

 CPI           -0.2%    -0.2% to -0.1%                  --   Flat  +0.3% 

 CPI Core      +0.2%    +0.1% to +0.2%                  --  +0.2%  +0.2%

     Comments: The CPI is expected to fall 0.2% in December after a flat 

reading in November. A further decline in gasoline prices, as evidenced 

by the monthly AAA data, will be the key factor. The core CPI is 

forecast to rise 0.2% following a 0.2% gain in the previous month. 

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com

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