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US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 
median forecasts.         
Weekly Jobless Claims for January 5 week                                
 Thursday, January 10 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:       
               Median         Range                  Jan05  Dec29  Dec22
 Weekly Claims   220k     215k to 215k                  --   231k   221k
     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall 
to 220,000 in the January 5 week after an increase of 10,000 to 231,000 
level in the previous week. The prevalence of holidays in December make 
seasonal adjustment difficult at the end of the year. The four-week 
moving average would rise in the coming week as the 206,000 level in the 
December 8 week rolls out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast 
is correct and there are no revisions. 
Consumer Price Index for December (percent change)                       
 Friday, January 11 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:        
              Median         Range                   Dec18  Nov18  Oct18
 CPI           -0.2%    -0.2% to -0.1%                  --   Flat  +0.3% 
 CPI Core      +0.2%    +0.1% to +0.2%                  --  +0.2%  +0.2%
     Comments: The CPI is expected to fall 0.2% in December after a flat 
reading in November. A further decline in gasoline prices, as evidenced 
by the monthly AAA data, will be the key factor. The core CPI is 
forecast to rise 0.2% following a 0.2% gain in the previous month. 
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email:

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