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Free AccessUS Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts
WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the
median forecasts.
Factory Orders for January (percent change)
Tuesday, March 19 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Jan19 Dec18 Nov18
New Orders +0.2% -0.6% to +1.5% -- +0.1% -0.5%
Ex Transport -- -- to -- -- -0.6% -1.3%
Comments: Factory orders are expected to rise by 0.2% in January
after a modest 0.1% gain in December. Durable goods orders were already
reported as up 0.4%, while nondurable orders are expected to hold steady
in the month after energy-related declines in the previous two months.
Factory orders ex. transportation are expected to post only a modest
January gain, based on a 0.1% decline in durables goods orders ex.
transportation in the month.
Weekly Jobless Claims for March 16 week
Thursday, March 21 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Mar16 Mar09 Mar02
Weekly Claims 225k 222k to 225k -- 229k 233k
Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall
by 4,000 to 225,000 in the March 16 employment survey week after an
increase of 6,000 in the previous week. The four-week moving average
would rise by 2,000 this week as the 217,000 level in the February 16
employment survey week rolls out of the calculation, assuming the MNI
forecast is correct and there are no revisions.
Philadelphia Federal Reserve Index for March (diffusion index)
Thursday, March 21 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Mar19 Feb19 Jan19
Phila Fed 7.0 -4.0 to 10.0 -- -4.1 17.0
Comments: The Philadelphia Fed index is expected to rebound to a
reading of 7.0 in March after falling to -4.1 in February. The Empire
State index fell to 3.7 in March from 8.8 in February.
Leading Indicators for February (percent change)
Thursday, March 21 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Feb19 Jan19 Dec18
Leading Index +0.1% -0.1% to +0.1% -- Flat -0.1%
Comments: The index of leading indicators is forecast to rise by
0.1% in February after a revised flat reading in January. A jump in
consumer expectations and an increase in stock prices should be the key
positive factors, offset by a shorter factory workweek and a dip in the
ISM new order reading. Delayed data from the Commerce Department will
still leave some holes in the Conference Board's source data.
Existing-home Sales for February (annual rate)
Friday, March 22 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Feb19 Jan19 Dec18
Home Resales 5.11m 5.00m to 5.40m -- 4.94m 5.00m
Comments: The pace of existing home sales is expected to rebound to
a 5.11 million annual rate in February after a further decline in
January. Pending home sales rebounded by 4.6% in January after six
straight declines.
Treasury Statement for February ($ billions)
Friday, March 22 at 2:00 p.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Feb19 Jan19 Feb18
Balance -$228.5b -$230.0 to -$225.0 -- +$8.7b -$215.2b
Comments: The US Treasury is expected to post a $228.5 billion
budget deficit in February, wider than the $215.2 billion deficit in
February 2018. As a result, the 2019 fiscal year gap remains on track to
eclipse the previous fiscal year's deficit by a wide margin.
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.