US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.         

Weekly Jobless Claims for April 20 week                                

 Thursday, April 25 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:       

               Median         Range                  Apr20  Apr13  Apr06

 Weekly Claims  201k      192k to 205k                  --   192k   197k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise 

by 9,000 to 201,000 in the April 20 week after a decrease of 5,000 to 

192,000 in the previous week, a 50-year low. The four-week moving 

average would fall by 2,750 this week as the 212,000 level in the March 

23 week rolls out of the calculation. The timing of spring breaks varies 

from year to year, making seasonal adjustment difficult and leaving open 

the possibility of a surprise. 

Durable Goods Orders for March (percent change)

 Thursday, April 25 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Mar19  Feb19  Jan19 

 New Orders     +0.6%     -0.2 to +1.3%                 --  -1.6%  +0.1% 

 Ex-Transport   +0.4%     Flat to +1.5%                 --  -0.1%  -0.1%

     Comments: Durable goods orders are expected to rise by 0.6% in 

March after falling by 1.6% in February. Boeing orders rose in March 

after a February dip, which should allow transportation orders to 

increase. Durable goods orders excluding transportation are expected to  

rise 0.4% after a 0.1% decline in February. 

GDP for First Quarter (advance estimate)

 Friday, April 26 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:        

               Median         Range                  1Q19a   4Q18   3Q18

 GDP            +2.0%    +1.5% to +2.5%                 --  +2.2%  +3.4% 

 Chain Prices   +1.8%    +1.5% to +2.5%                 --  +1.7%  +1.8%

     Comments: Analysts see GDP rising by 2.0 in the first quarter's 

advance estimate, below the 2.2% gain in the fourth quarter. Analysts 

cite the fading effects of a tax stimulus, the parital government 

shutdown, and severe weather conditions as the key negative factors and 

residential construction and exports as positive factors. The chain 

price index is expected to rise to a 1.8% rate from the 1.7% gain in 

the previous quarter. 

University of Michigan Survey for April (final)          

 Friday, April 26 at 10:00 a.m. ET                       Actual:

                Median        Range                  Apr19f Apr19p Mar19

 Consumer Sent    97.3    97.0 to 97.7                   --  96.9   98.4

     Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to be revised up 

to a reading of 97.3 in March. This would keep the index below the 98.4 

reading in March.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com

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