US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.         

Producer Price Index for April (percent change)

 Thursday, May 9 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:        

                 Median         Range                Apr19  Mar19  Feb19

 Final Demand     +0.3%    +0.1% to +0.4%               --  +0.6%  +0.1% 

 Ex Food,Energy   +0.2%    +0.1% to +0.3%               --  +0.3%  +0.1%

     Comments: Final demand PPI is expected to rise by 0.3% in April 

after a surprise 0.6% March increase. Energy prices are expected to rise 

further, though at a slower rate, following a 5.6% surge in the previous 

month, while food prices are expected to hold steady after a 0.3% 

rebound. Excluding food and energy prices, PPI is forecast to rise 0.2% 

after a stronger-than-expected 0.3% gain in March. 

Weekly Jobless Claims for May 4 week                                

 Thursday, May 9 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:       

               Median         Range                  May04  Apr27  Apr20

 Weekly Claims   215k     210k to 220k                  --   230k   230k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall 

by 15,000 to 215,000 in the May 4 week after surprisingly holding steady 

at 230,000 in the previous week. The four-week moving average would rise 

by 4,500 this week as the 197,000 level in the April 6 survey week rolls 

out of the calculation. 

Trade in Goods and Services for March (deficit, billion $)           

 Thursday, May 9 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:        

               Median         Range                Mar19   Feb19   Jan19

 Trade Gap    -$51.1b  -$55.0b to -$48.8b             -- -$49.4b -$51.1b

     Comments: The international trade gap is expected to widen to $51.1 

billion in March after a substantial narrowing in February. The advance 

trade report released on May 3 showed a modest widening in the Census 

trade gap. 

Consumer Price Index for April (percent change)                       

 Friday, May 10 at 8:30 a.m. ET                          Actual:        

              Median         Range                   Apr19  Mar19  Feb19

 CPI           +0.4%    +0.2% to +0.5%                  --  +0.4%  +0.2% 

 CPI Core      +0.2%    +0.1% to +0.2%                  --  +0.1%  +0.1%

     Comments: CPI is expected to rise 0.4% in April after the same 

increase in the previous month. Gasoline prices are expected to post a 

further gain, as suggested by the monthly AAA data. Food prices are 

expected to flatten out after posting a 0.3% rise in March. The core CPI 

is forecast to rise 0.2% following below-trend 0.1% gains in the 

previous two months. An extremely large apparel price decline was a key 

factor in March that could be reversed in the April report. 

Treasury Statement for April ($ billions)                           

 Friday, May 10 at 2:00 p.m. ET                          Actual:

             Median           Range             Apr19    Mar19    Mar18

 Balance   +$142.0b   +$134.0b to +$153.0b          -- -$146.9b +$214.3b

     Comments: The US Treasury is expected to post a $142.0 billion 

budget surplus in the April tax month, much smaller than the $214.3 

billion surplus in April 2018.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com

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