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US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT May 14/17:06 EST May 14
     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 
median forecasts.         
Retail and Food Sales for April (percent change)                      
 Wednesday, May 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:
               Median         Range                  Apr19  Mar19  Feb19
 Retail Sales  +0.2%      Flat to +0.4%                 --  +1.6%  -0.2%
 Ex-Mtr Veh    +0.7%     +0.4% to +0.9%                 --  +1.2%  -0.2%
     Comments: Retail sales are forecast to rise by only 0.2% in April 
after a 1.6% rebound in March. Not seasonally adjusted industry motor 
vehicle sales were much slower in April, while AAA reported that 
gasoline prices rose further in mid-April from one month earlier. Retail 
sales are expected to rise 0.7% excluding motor vehicles after a 1.2% 
increase in March, with gasoline prices the key factor. 
Empire State Index for May (diffusion index)
 Wednesday, May 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:        
                 Median        Range                 May19  Apr19  Mar19
 Empire Index     8.0       5.0 to 10.5                 --   10.1    3.7
     Comments: The Empire State index is expected to slip back to a 
reading of 8.0 in May after rising to 10.1 in April. 
Industrial Production for April (percent change)
 Wednesday, May 15 at 9:45 a.m. ET                        Actual:        
              Median          Range                  Apr19  Mar19  Feb19
 Ind Prod      Flat      -0.5% to +0.3%                 --  -0.1%  +0.1% 
 Cap Util     78.7%      78.4% to 79.0%                 --  78.8%  79.0%  
     Comments: Industrial production is expected to hold steady in April 
after a 0.1% decrease in March. Factory payrolls rose by only 4,000 in 
April, while auto production jobs fell by 2,000 and the factory workweek 
was unchanged at 40.7 hours. The ISM production index fell to 52.3 in 
the current month from 55.8 in the previous month. Utilities production 
is expected to rise further in the month after a 0.2% increase in March, 
as weather was unseasonably warm in April. Mining production is forecast 
to rebound modestly after a 0.8% decline in the previous month. Capacity 
utilization is forecast to tick down further to 78.7% after falling 
slightly to 78.8% in March. 
Business Inventories for March (percent change)                      
 Wednesday, May 15 at 10:00 a.m. ET                      Actual:
              Median           Range                 Mar19  Feb19  Jan19
 Inventories   Flat       -0.1% to +0.1%                --  +0.3%  +0.9%
     Comments: The value of business inventories is expected to be flat 
in March, in line with a MNI calculation after the wholesale release. 
Factory inventories were already up 0.4% in the month, while wholesale 
inventories fell 0.1% and the advance reading for retail inventories was 
a 0.3% decline. As for sales, factory shipments rose 0.7%, wholesale 
sales jumped by 2.3%, and the advance estimate of retail trade sales was 
a 1.7% gain, adding up to a 1.5% gain for business sales before any 
retail sales revision. 
Weekly Jobless Claims for May 11 week                                
 Thursday, May 16 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:       
               Median         Range                  May11  May04  Apr27
 Weekly Claims  220k      210k to 230k                  --   228k   230k
     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall 
by 8,000 to 220,000 in the May 11 week after declining by only 2,000 to 
228,000 in the previous week. A surge in claims in New York in the 
previous week is likely to be reversed in the coming week. The four-week 
moving average would rise by 6,750 this week as the decade-low 193,000 
level in the April 13 week rolls out of the calculation but could begin 
to fall back next week. 
Housing Starts for April (annual rate, million) 
 Thursday, May 16 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:        
           Median            Range                   Apr19  Mar19  Feb19
 Starts    1.200k      1.130k to 1.274k                 -- 1.139m 1.142m 
     Comments: The pace of housing starts is expected to rebound to a 
1.200 million pace in April after falling further to 1.139 million in 
March, while building permits are expected to slip to a 1.280 million 
pace from the 1.288 million revised March pace. Unadjusted starts were 
down 13.0% from a year earlier in March, a further sign that home 
building has stagnated. 
Philadelphia Federal Reserve Index for May (diffusion index)
 Thursday, May 16 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:        
                 Median        Range                 May19  Apr19  Mar19
 Phila Fed        10.0      4.0 to 12.0                 --    8.5   13.7
     Comments: The Philadelphia Fed index is expected to rebound to a 
reading of 10.0 in May after dipping to 8.5 in April. 
Leading Indicators for April (percent change)
 Friday, May 17 at 10:00 a.m. ET                         Actual:
                 Median         Range                Apr18  Mar19  Feb19
 Leading Index   +0.2%     +0.2% to +0.3%               --  +0.4%  +0.1%
     Comments: The leading index is expected to rise by 0.2% in April, 
with positive contributions from lower jobless claims and higher stock 
prices and consumer expectations, offset by a sharp decline in the ISM 
new orders index. 
University of Michigan Survey for May (preliminary)          
 Friday, May 17 at 10:00 a.m. ET                         Actual:
                Median        Range                  May19p  Apr19 Mar19
 Consumer Sent   97.5     96.0 to 99.0                   --   97.2  98.4
     Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to rise to a 
reading of 97.5 in early-May from 97.2 in April.
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]

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