US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.         

Weekly Jobless Claims for May 25 week                                

 Thursday, May 30 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:       

               Median         Range                  May25  May18  May11

 Weekly Claims   212k     205k to 219k                  --   211k   212k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to 

rebound by 1,000 to 212,000 in the May 25 week after falling by 1,000 to 

211,000 in the previous week. The four-week moving average would fall by 

4,500 this week as the 230,000 level in the April 27 week rolls out of 

the calculation. The shorter reporting period due to the Monday holiday 

may lead to a number of estimated state data. 

GDP for First Quarter (second estimate)

 Thursday, May 30 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:        

               Median         Range                  1Q19s  1Q19a   4Q18

 GDP            +3.1%    +2.9% to +3.2%                 --  +3.2%  +2.2% 

 Chain Prices   +0.9%    +0.9% to +0.9%                 --  +0.9%  +1.7%

     Comments: Analysts expect GDP to be revised down very slightly to a 

3.1% pace in second estimate for the first quarter, with minor 

offsetting adjustments to the components. The chain price index is 

expected to be unrevised at 0.9%. Early expectations for the second 

quarter appear to be softer, based on the April consumption and 

manufacturing data release so far, though the home building data were 

relatively strong. 

Personal Income for April (percent change)                          

 Friday, May 31 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Apr19  Mar19  Feb19

 Income         +0.3%    +0.2% to +0.4%                 --  +0.1%  +0.2% 

 Spending       +0.2%    +0.1% to +0.4%                 --  +0.9%  +0.1%

 Core Prices    +0.2%    +0.1% to +0.3%                 --   Flat  +0.1%

     Comments: Personal income is expected to rise by 0.3% in April, as 

payrolls and hours worked rose by 263,000, while hourly earnings rose 

0.2%. PCE for April is expected to be up only 0.2%, based on the much 

softer retail sales data for the month, after rising by 0.9% in the 

March. Core PCE prices are expected to rise 0.2% in April, which should 

keep the year/year rate at 1.6%, depending on rounding. Core PCE prices 

rose by 0.2% in April 2018. 

MNI Chicago Report for May (index)                                 

 Friday, May 31 at 9:45 a.m. ET                          Actual:        

               Median         Range                  May19  Apr19  Mar19

 MNI Chicago     53.8     51.0 to 56.4                  --   52.6   58.7

     Comments: The MNI Chicago PMI is expected to partially rebound to a 

reading of 53.9 in May after a further dip to 52.6 in April. Other 

regional data already released have been mixed, with the Empire and 

Philadelphia measures up, but the Kansas City reading down. 

University of Michigan Survey for May (final)          

 Friday, May 31 at 10:00 a.m. ET                         Actual:

                Median        Range                  May19f May19p Apr19

 Consumer Sent   102.0   100.9 to 102.4                  --  102.4  97.2

     Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to be revised 

down to a reading of 102.0 in May after jumping to 102.4 in the 

preliminary estimate. The data suggest no real concern about the 

US-China trade negotiations.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com

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