US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT Jun 5/17:06 EST Jun 5

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.         

Weekly Jobless Claims for June 1 week                                

 Thursday, June 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:       

               Median         Range                  Jun01  May25  May18

 Weekly Claims  216k      210k to 220k                  --   215k   212k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise 

by 1,000 to 216,000 in the June 1 holiday-shortened week after rising 

by 3,000 to 215,000 in the previous week. Seasonal adjustment issues 

tend to appear in holiday weeks, so a surprise is possible. The 

four-week moving average would fall by 3,000 this week as the 228,000 

level in the May 4 week rolls out of the calculation. 

Trade in Goods and Services for April (deficit, billion $)           

 Thursday, June 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:        

               Median         Range                Apr19   Mar19   Feb19

 Trade Gap    -$50.8b  -$53.0b to -$50.1b             -- -$50.0b -$49.3b

     Comments: The international trade gap is expected to widen to $50.8 

billion in April after a very small widening in March. The advance trade 

report released on May 30 showed a modest widening in the Census trade 

gap. 

Nonfarm Productivity for First Quarter, revised (ann rate % change) 

 Thursday, June 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:        

                   Median           Range          1Q19r   1Q19p    4Q18

 Productivity       +3.4%      +3.3% to +3.6%         --   +3.6%   +1.3% 

 Unit Labor Costs   -0.9%      -1.4% to -0.6%         --   -0.9%   +2.5%

     Comments: Nonfarm productivity is expected to be revised down 

slightly to a 3.4% pace, reflecting a small downward adjustment to 

output growth. Unit labor costs are expected to be unrevised from a 0.9% 

pace of decline. 

Nonfarm Payrolls for May (change in thousands)                     

 Friday, June 7 at 8:30 a.m. ET                           Actual:        

               Median         Range                  May19  Apr19  Mar19

 Payrolls       185k      145k to 208k                  --  +263k  +189k

 Private Jobs   175k      155k to 198k                  --  +236k  +179k

 Jobless Rate   3.6%      3.6% to 3.8%                  --   3.6%   3.8%

 Hrly Earnings  0.3%      0.2% to 0.3%                  --  +0.2%  +0.2%

 Avg Wkly Hrs   34.5      34.4 to 34.5                  --   34.4   34.5

     Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 185,000 in May 

after a stronger-than-expected 263,000 rise in April. The unemployment 

rate is expected to remain at a 50-year low 3.6% in the previous month 

on a shrinkage in the labor force. Hourly earnings are forecast to 

increase by 0.3%, while the average workweek is expected to rise to 34.5 

hours after falling to 34.4 hours in April. 

Consumer Credit for April (dollar change, billions)                   

 Friday, June 7 at 3:00 p.m. ET                          Actual:        

              Median        Range                  Apr19   Mar19   Feb19

 Cons Cred   +$13.8b +$13.0b to +$14.5b               -- +$10.3b +$15.5b

     Comments: Consumer credit use is expected to rise by $13.8 billion 

in April after a smaller $10.3 billion gain in March. Retail sales 

declined in the month on both a sharp decline in auto sales and soft 

readings in other categories outside of gasoline station sales.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]