US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.                                                       

Weekly Jobless Claims for July 20 week                                  

 Thursday, July 25 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Jul20  Jul13  Jul06

 Weekly Claims   220k     210k to 222k                  --   216k   208k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise  

by 4,000 to 220,000 in the July 20 week after a partial rebound to      

216,000 in the previous week. The four-week moving average would decline

further this week as the 229,000 level in the June 22 week rolls out of 

the calculation.                                                        

Durable Goods Orders for June (percent change)                          

 Thursday, July 25 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Jun19  May19  Apr19

 New Orders     +0.8%    -1.5% to +1.5%                 --  -1.3%  -2.8%

 Ex-Transport   +0.2%    -0.1% to +0.7%                 --  +0.3%  -0.1%

     Comments: The pace of durable goods orders is expected to rise by  

0.8% in May after falling in the previous two months on continued       

declines for aircraft. Boeing still only reported nine new orders in    

June, only slightly ahead of the report of no new orders in May.        

Cancellations remain a factor too, so the transportation component      

should remain a drag on the headline number going forward despite a     

modest June uptick. Orders are expected to rise by 0.2% outside of the  

transportation component.                                               

GDP for Second Quarter (advance estimate)                               

 Friday, July 26 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:         

               Median         Range                  2Q19a   1Q19   4Q18

 GDP            +1.8%    +1.2% to +2.8%                 --  +3.1%  +2.2%

 Chain Prices   +1.9%    +1.4% to +2.3%                 --  +0.9%  +1.7%

     Comments: Analysts see a 1.8% increase for second quarter GDP in   

the advance estimate, much slower than the 3.1% gain in the first       

quarter. The key factors are expected to be a wider trade gap and slower

inventory build, with fixed investment roughly flat. The PCE component, 

however is expected to show significant acceleration after a softer     

first quarter. The chain price index is expected to rise by 1.9% in the 

second quarter after a 0.9% gain in the previous quarter. Annual        

revisions will be released with this week's data.                       

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202 371 2121; email: alexandra.kelley@marketnews.com

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