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US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT Jul 26/17:06 EST Jul 26
     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 
median forecasts.                                                       
Personal Income for June (percent change)                               
 Tuesday, July 30 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:       
               Median         Range                  Jun19  May19  Apr19
 Income         +0.4%    +0.3% to +0.5%                 --  +0.5%  +0.5%
 Spending       +0.3%    +0.2% to +0.5%                 --  +0.4%  +0.6%
 Core Prices    +0.2%    +0.2% to +0.3%                 --  +0.2%  +0.2%
     Comments: Personal income is expected to rise by 0.4% in June, as  
payrolls rose by 224,000, the average workweek was unchanged, and hourly
earnings posted a 0.2% gain. PCE is expected to be up 0.3%, with retail 
sales posting a trend 0.4% gain in June and a solid 0.7% increase in the
control group. Core PCE prices are expected to rise by 0.2% in June,    
which should lift the year/year rate to 1.7%. Annual revisions will be  
included with the data.                                                 
Conference Board Consumer Confidence for July (index)                   
 Tuesday, July 30 at 10:00 a.m. ET                       Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Jul19  Jun19  May19
 Confidence     125.0    120.0 to 129.0                 --  121.5  131.3
     Comments: The measure of consumer confidence is expected to        
partially rebound to a reading of 125.0 in July after dipping to 121.5  
in June. The Michigan Sentiment index ticked up to a reading of 98.4 in 
early-July from 98.2 in June.                                           
Employment Cost Index for Second Quarter (percent change)               
 Wednesday, July 31 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:       
                 Median       Range                   2Q19   1Q19   4Q18
 ECI              +0.7%  +0.6% to +0.8%                 --  +0.7%  +0.7%
     Comments: The ECI is expected to rise by 0.7% in the second        
quarter, which would mark the third straight increase of this size.     
MNI Chicago Report for July (index)                                     
 Wednesday, July 31 at 9:45 a.m. ET                      Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Jul19  Jun19  May19
 MNI Chicago     50.8     50.0 to 52.2                  --   49.7   54.2
     Comments: The MNI Chicago PMI is expected to rise back above 50 to 
a reading of 50.8 in July after a decline to 49.7 in June. Other        
regional data already released have been mixed, with the Empire and     
Philadelphia Fed surveys indicating improvement, but the Kansas City and
Richmond data turning into negative territory.                          
Weekly Jobless Claims for July 27 week                                  
 Thursday, August 1 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:       
               Median         Range                  Jul27  Jul20  Jul13
 Weekly Claims   212k     210k to 215k                  --   206k   216k
     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise  
by 4,000 to 212,000 in the July 27 week after a decline to 206,000 in   
the previous week, but this would keep claims at a very low level. The  
four-week moving average would fall by 2,500 this week as the 222,000   
level in the June 29 week rolls out of the calculation.                 
Construction Spending for June (percent change)                         
 Thursday, August 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Jun19  May19  Apr19
 Construction   +0.4%    -0.1% to +0.5%                 --  -0.8%  +0.4%
     Comments: Construction spending is expected to rise by 0.4% in June
after dipping in May. Housing starts ticked down in the month, so       
private residential construction would be expected to continue its      
downward trend.                                                         
ISM Manufacturing Index for July                                        
 Thursday, August 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Jul19  Jun19  May19
 Mfg ISM         52.0     50.5 to 54.3                  --   51.7   52.1
     Comments: The ISM manufacturing index is expected to rebound only  
modestly to a reading of 52.0 in July after a further decline to 51.7 in
June. Regional conditions data have been mixed in direction.            
Nonfarm Payrolls for July (change in thousands)                         
 Friday, August 2 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Jul19  Jun19  May19
 Payrolls       +160k    +100k to +196k                 --  +224k   +72k
 Private Jobs   +150k    +100k to +190k                 --  +191k   +83k
 Jobless Rate    3.7%     3.6% to 3.7%                  --   3.7%   3.6%
 Hrly Earnings  +0.2%    +0.2% to +0.3%                 --  +0.2%  +0.3%
 Avg Wkly Hrs    34.4     34.4 to 34.5                  --   34.4   34.4
     Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 160,000 in July 
after a stronger-than-expected 224,000 rise in June. The unemployment   
rate is expected to hold steady at 3.7%, while hourly earnings are      
forecast to rise by 0.2%, and the average workweek is expected to stay  
at 34.4 hours for another month.                                        
Trade in Goods and Services for June (deficit, billion $)               
 Friday, August 2 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:        
               Median         Range                Jun19   May19   Apr19
 Trade Gap    -$54.5b  -$57.0b to -$52.8b             -- -$55.5b -$51.2b
     Comments: The international trade gap is expected to narrow to a   
$54.5b billion gap from $55.5 billion in May. The advance Census trade  
gap narrowed only slightly in the month.                                
University of Michigan Survey for July (final)                          
 Friday, August 2 at 10:00 a.m. ET                         Actual:      
                Median        Range                  Jul19f Jul19p Jun19
 Consumer Sent    98.4    98.3 to 98.5                   --   98.4  98.2
     Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to be unrevised 
at a reading of 984, leaving only slightly ahead of the 98.2 reading in 
June and well below the 100.0 reading in May despite a strong stock     
market.                                                                 
Factory Orders for June (percent change)                                
 Friday, August 2 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:       
               Median         Range                  Jun19  May19  Apr19
 New Orders     +0.8%    +0.1% to +1.2%                 --  -0.7%  -1.2%
 Ex-Transport                                           --  +0.1%  +0.2%
     Comments: Factory orders are expected to rise by 0.8% in June after
transportation-led declines in the previous two months. Durable goods   
orders were already reported up 2.0% on a sharp rebound in aircraft     
orders.                                                                 
--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]

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