US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

{US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts>}              

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.                                                       

Employment Cost Index for Second Quarter (percent change)               

 Wednesday, July 31 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:       

                 Median       Range                   2Q19   1Q19   4Q18

 ECI              +0.7%  +0.6% to +0.8%                 --  +0.7%  +0.7%

     Comments: The ECI is expected to rise by 0.7% in the second        

quarter, which would mark the third straight increase of this size.     

MNI Chicago Report for July (index)                                     

 Wednesday, July 31 at 9:45 a.m. ET                      Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Jul19  Jun19  May19

 MNI Chicago     51.0     50.0 to 52.2                  --   49.7   54.2

     Comments: The MNI Chicago PMI is expected to rise back above 50 to 

a reading of 51.0 in July after a decline to 49.7 in June. Other        

regional data already released have been mixed, with the Empire and     

Philadelphia Fed surveys indicating improvement, but the Kansas City and

Richmond data turning into negative territory.                          

Weekly Jobless Claims for July 27 week                                  

 Thursday, August 1 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:       

               Median         Range                  Jul27  Jul20  Jul13

 Weekly Claims   213k     210k to 215k                  --   206k   216k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise  

by 7,000 to 213,000 in the July 27 week after a decline to 206,000 in   

the previous week, but this would keep claims at a very low level. The  

four-week moving average would fall by 2,250 this week as the 222,000   

level in the June 29 week rolls out of the calculation.                 

Construction Spending for June (percent change)                         

 Thursday, August 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Jun19  May19  Apr19

 Construction   +0.3%    -0.2% to +0.5%                 --  -0.8%  +0.4%

     Comments: Construction spending is expected to rise by 0.3% in June

after dipping in May. Housing starts ticked down in the month, so       

private residential construction would be expected to continue its      

downward trend.                                                         

ISM Manufacturing Index for July                                        

 Thursday, August 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Jul19  Jun19  May19

 Mfg ISM         52.0     50.5 to 54.3                  --   51.7   52.1

     Comments: The ISM manufacturing index is expected to rebound only  

modestly to a reading of 52.0 in July after a further decline to 51.7 in

June. Regional conditions data have been mixed in direction.            

Nonfarm Payrolls for July (change in thousands)                         

 Friday, August 2 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Jul19  Jun19  May19

 Payrolls       +160k    +100k to +212k                 --  +224k   +72k

 Private Jobs   +153k    +100k to +190k                 --  +191k   +83k

 Jobless Rate    3.7%     3.6% to 3.7%                  --   3.7%   3.6%

 Hrly Earnings  +0.2%    +0.2% to +0.3%                 --  +0.2%  +0.3%

 Avg Wkly Hrs    34.4     34.4 to 34.5                  --   34.4   34.4

     Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 160,000 in July 

after a stronger-than-expected 224,000 rise in June. The unemployment   

rate is expected to hold steady at 3.7%, while hourly earnings are      

forecast to rise by 0.2%, and the average workweek is expected to stay  

at 34.4 hours for another month.                                        

Trade in Goods and Services for June (deficit, billion $)               

 Friday, August 2 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:        

               Median         Range                Jun19   May19   Apr19

 Trade Gap    -$54.6b  -$57.0b to -$53.6b             -- -$55.5b -$51.2b

     Comments: The international trade gap is expected to narrow to a   

$54.6b billion gap from $55.5 billion in May. The advance Census trade  

gap narrowed only slightly in the month.                                

University of Michigan Survey for July (final)                          

 Friday, August 2 at 10:00 a.m. ET                         Actual:      

                Median        Range                  Jul19f Jul19p Jun19

 Consumer Sent    98.5    98.3 to 100.0                  --   98.4  98.2

     Comments: The Michigan Sentiment index is expected to be unrevised 

at a reading of 98.5, leaving it only slightly ahead of the 98.2 reading

in June and well below the 100.0 reading in May despite a strong stock  

market.                                                                 

Factory Orders for June (percent change)                                

 Friday, August 2 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:       

               Median         Range                  Jun19  May19  Apr19

 New Orders     +0.8%    +0.1% to +1.2%                 --  -0.7%  -1.2%

 Ex-Transport      --          --                       --  +0.1%  +0.2%

     Comments: Factory orders are expected to rise by 0.8% in June after

transportation-led declines in the previous two months. Durable goods   

orders were already reported up 2.0% on a sharp rebound in aircraft     

orders.                                                                 

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202 371 2121; email: brooke.migdon@marketnews.com

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