US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.   

Weekly Jobless Claims for December 2 week                               

 Thursday, December 7 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

                 Median         Range                Dec02  Nov25  Nov18

 Weekly Claims     240k      230k to 245k               --   238k   240k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise  

by 2,000 to 240,000 in the December 2 post-holiday week after a decrease

of 2,000 in the previous week. The four-week moving average would rise  

by only 250 in the coming week as the 239,000 level in the November 4   

week drops out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct 

and there are no revisions.                                             

Consumer Credit for October (dollar change, billions)                   

 Thursday, December 7 at 3:00 p.m. ET                       Actual:     

              Median           Range               Oct17   Sep17   Aug17

 Cons Cred   +$17.0b     +$15.0b to +$18.0b           -- +$20.8b +$13.1b

     Comments: Consumer credit is expected to rise by $17.0 billion in  

October after a $20.8 billion jump in September. Retail sales rose 0.2% 

and were still up 0.1% excluding a 0.7% increase in motor vehicle sales.

Nonfarm Payrolls for November (change in thousands)                     

 Friday, December 8 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:       

               Median         Range                  Nov17  Oct17  Sep17

 Payrolls       +200k      +165k to +250k               --  +261k   +18k

 Private Job    +198k      +160k to +245k               --  +252k   +15k

 Jobless Rate    4.1%       4.0% to 4.2%                --   4.1%   4.2%

 Hrly Earnings  +0.3%      +0.1% to +0.4%               --   Flat  +0.5%

 Avg Wkly Hrs    34.4       34.4 to 34.4                --   34.4   34.4

     Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 200,000 in      

November after hurricane-related fluctuations in September and October, 

while the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.1% in       

October. Hourly earnings are forecast to rise by 0.3% after a flat      

October reading and a 0.5% surge in September, and the average workweek 

is expected to continue at 34.4 hours, where it has been for the last   

four months.                                                            

University of Michigan Survey for December (preliminary)                

 Friday, December 8 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

                Median           Range              Dec17p  Nov17  Oct17

 Consumer Sent    99.0        97.0 to 102.0             --   98.5   97.8

     Comments: The Michigan sentiment index rise slightly to a reading  

of 99.0 in early December from 98.5 in November.                        

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com

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