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WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the
Weekly Jobless Claims for December 2 week
Thursday, December 7 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Dec02 Nov25 Nov18
Weekly Claims 240k 230k to 245k -- 238k 240k
Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise
by 2,000 to 240,000 in the December 2 post-holiday week after a decrease
of 2,000 in the previous week. The four-week moving average would rise
by only 250 in the coming week as the 239,000 level in the November 4
week drops out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct
and there are no revisions.
Consumer Credit for October (dollar change, billions)
Thursday, December 7 at 3:00 p.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Oct17 Sep17 Aug17
Cons Cred +$17.0b +$15.0b to +$18.0b -- +$20.8b +$13.1b
Comments: Consumer credit is expected to rise by $17.0 billion in
October after a $20.8 billion jump in September. Retail sales rose 0.2%
and were still up 0.1% excluding a 0.7% increase in motor vehicle sales.
Nonfarm Payrolls for November (change in thousands)
Friday, December 8 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Nov17 Oct17 Sep17
Payrolls +200k +165k to +250k -- +261k +18k
Private Job +198k +160k to +245k -- +252k +15k
Jobless Rate 4.1% 4.0% to 4.2% -- 4.1% 4.2%
Hrly Earnings +0.3% +0.1% to +0.4% -- Flat +0.5%
Avg Wkly Hrs 34.4 34.4 to 34.4 -- 34.4 34.4
Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 200,000 in
November after hurricane-related fluctuations in September and October,
while the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.1% in
October. Hourly earnings are forecast to rise by 0.3% after a flat
October reading and a 0.5% surge in September, and the average workweek
is expected to continue at 34.4 hours, where it has been for the last
University of Michigan Survey for December (preliminary)
Friday, December 8 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual:
Median Range Dec17p Nov17 Oct17
Consumer Sent 99.0 97.0 to 102.0 -- 98.5 97.8
Comments: The Michigan sentiment index rise slightly to a reading
of 99.0 in early December from 98.5 in November.
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: email@example.com