US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 20:06 GMT Dec 8/15:06 EST Dec 8

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.  

Producer Price Index for November (percent change)                      

 Tuesday, December 12 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

                 Median        Range                 Nov17  Oct17  Sep17

 Final Demand     +0.3%     +0.2% to +0.5%              --  +0.4%  +0.4%

 Ex Food,Energy   +0.2%      Flat to +0.2%              --  +0.4%  +0.4%

     Comments: Final demand PPI is expected to rise 0.3% in November    

after 0.4% increases in the previous two months. Energy prices are      

expected to rise after a flat October reading, while food prices are    

expected to temper a bit after 0.5% gain. Excluding food and energy     

prices, PPI is forecast to rise 0.2% after an above-expectation 0.4%    

increase in the previous month that was led by a 1.1% jump in trade     

services prices. Excluding trade services as well as food and energy,   

PPI is expected to post a modest gain.                                  

Treasury Statement for November ($ billions)                            

 Tuesday, December 12 at 2:00 p.m ET                     Actual:        

             Median           Range              Nov17    Oct17    Nov16

 Balance   -$135.0b      -$135.0b to -$135.0b       --  -$63.2b -$136.7b

     Comments: The Treasury is expected to post a $135.5 billion budget 

gap in November, down slightly from the $136.7 billion gap in November  

2016.                                                                   

Consumer Price Index for November (percent change)                      

 Wednesday, December 13 at 8:30 a.m. ET                  Actual:        

              Median         Range                   Nov17  Oct17  Sep17

 CPI           +0.4%     +0.3% to +0.5%                 --  +0.1%  +0.5%

 CPI Core      +0.2%     +0.2% to +0.2%                 --  +0.2%  +0.1%

     Comments: The CPI is expected to rise 0.4% in November following a 

0.1% rise in October. Analysts expect energy prices to rebound solidly  

after October's 1.0% decline. AAA reported a rebound in mid-month prices

from October to November. The core CPI is forecast to post another 0.2% 

increase in October                                                     

Weekly Jobless Claims for December 9 week                               

 Thursday, December 14 at 8:30 a.m. ET                    Actual:       

                 Median         Range                Dec09  Dec02  Nov25

 Weekly Claims     239k      225k to 239k               --   236k   238k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise  

by 3,000 to 239,000 in the December 9 week after a decrease of 2,000 in 

the previous week. The four-week moving average would fall by 3,250 in  

the coming week as the 252,000 level in the November 11 week drops out  

of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are  

no revisions.                                                           

Retail and Food Sales for November (percent change)                     

 Thursday, December 14 at 8:30 a.m. ET                   Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Nov17  Oct17  Sep17

 Retail Sales   +0.3%      +0.1% to +0.5%               --  +0.2%  +1.9%

 Ex-Mtr Veh     +0.7%      +0.3% to +0.9%               --  +0.1%  +1.2%

     Comments: Retail sales are forecast to rise by 0.3% in November    

after a modest 0.2% increase in October. Seasonally adjusted industry   

motor vehicle sales slowed in November, but AAA reported that gasoline  

prices rebounded in mid-November from one month earlier. As a result,   

retail sales are expected to surge 0.7% excluding motor vehicles after  

October's 0.1% gain.                                                    

Business Inventories for October (percent change)                       

 Thursday, December 14 at 10:00 a.m. ET                  Actual:        

              Median           Range                 Oct17  Sep17  Aug17

 Inventories   -0.1%      -0.1% to +0.2%                --   Flat  +0.6%

     Comments: Business inventories are expected to fall 0.1% in        

October. Factory inventories were already reported as up 0.2% in the    

month, while wholesale inventories fell 0.5% and the advance report     

pointed to a 0.1% decline for retail inventories. Taken together, an MNI

calculation looks for a 0.1% decline for business inventories, so the   

median forecast implies analysts expect retail inventories to be        

unrevised. As for sales, factory shipments were up 0.6% and wholesale   

sales rose by 0.7%, while retail trade sales increased by 0.2% in the   

advance retail sales report. An MNI calculation looks for a 0.5%        

increase in business sales, barring a large revision to the retail trade

sales number.                                                           

Empire State Index for December (diffusion index)                       

 Friday, December 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

                 Median        Range                 Dec17  Nov17  Oct17

 Empire Index      17.8    14.7 to 20.0                 --   19.4   30.2

     Comments: The Empire State index is expected to fall to a reading  

of 17.8 in December from 19.4 in November.                              

Industrial Production for November (percent change)                     

 Friday, December 15 at 9:15 a.m. ET                     Actual:        

              Median          Range                  Nov17  Oct17  Sep17

 Ind Prod      +0.3%       Flat to +0.4%                --  +0.9%  +0.4%

 Cap Util      77.2%      77.1% to 77.3%                --  77.0%  76.4%

     Comments: Industrial production is expected to rise 0.3% in        

November after a 0.9% surge in the previous month. Factory payrolls rose

by 31,000 in November, while auto production jobs were up 2,000 and the 

factory workweek held steady at 40.9 hours. The ISM production index    

rose to 63.9 in the current month from 61.0 in the previous month.      

Utilities production is expected to decline in the month after a 2.0%   

October gain, as the weather was warmer than normal, while mining       

production is forecast to rebound after posting a 1.3% decline due to   

increase oil and gas extraction. Capacity utilization is forecast to    

rise to 77.2% from 77.0% in October.                                    

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com