US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 20:06 GMT Feb 23/15:06 EST Feb 23

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.  

New Home Sales for January (annual rate)                                

 Monday, February 26 at 10:00 a.m. ET                    Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Jan18  Dec17  Nov17

 New Homes       647k     630k to 660k                  --   625k   689k

     Comments: New home sales are expected to accelerate to a 647,000   

annual rate in January following a reversal in December. Unadjusted     

sales were still up 10.3% from a year earlier. Home supply was modestly 

higher in December, so the months supply rebounded to 5.7 months from   

4.9 months in November. Even so, there should be adequate homes         

available for sale when demand returns.                                 

Durable Goods Orders for January (percent change)                       

 Tuesday, February 27 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:       

               Median        Range                   Jan18  Dec17  Nov17

 New Orders     -2.9%    -3.3% to +1.0%                 --  +2.8%  +1.7%

 Ex-Transport   +0.1%    -0.2% to +0.5%                 --  +0.7%  +0.4%

     Comments: Durable goods orders are expected to fall by 2.9% in     

January, reversing the 2.8% gain in December. Boeing orders plunged to  

28 from 265 in December, suggesting nondefense aircraft orders could    

pull back after solid gains in the previous two months. Orders excluding

transportation are expected to post a 0.1% increase after a 0.7% gain in

December, showing little underlying movement.                           

Conference Board Consumer Confidence for February (index)               

 Tuesday, February 27 at 10:00 a.m. ET                   Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Feb18  Jan18  Dec17

 Confidence     126.0    124.0 to 127.7                 --  125.4  123.1

     Comments: The index of consumer confidence is expected rise further

to a reading of 126.0 in February after a rebound in January to 125.4,  

as rebounding stock prices and the recently-passed tax cuts lifted the  

spirits of consumers. The Michigan Sentiment Index rose to 99.9 in      

early-February from 95.7 in January, despite the recent stock market    

gyrations.                                                              

GDP for Fourth Quarter (second estimate)                                

 Friday, January 26 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:        

               Median         Range                    4Q17s 4Q17a  3Q17

 GDP            +2.5%    +2.4% to +2.6%                   -- +2.6% +3.2%

 Chain Prices   +2.4%    +2.4% to +2.4%                   -- +2.4% +2.1%

     Comments: Fourth quarter GDP is expected to be revised down to a   

2.5% rate of growth, as stronger fixed investment is offset by downward 

revisions to other components. The chain price index is expected to be  

unrevised at a 2.4% rate.                                               

MNI Chicago Report for February (index)                                 

 Wednesday, February 28 at 9:45 a.m. ET                  Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Feb18  Jan18  Dec17

 MNI Chicago     64.5     64.0 to 66.8                  --   65.9   67.8

     Comments: The MNI Chicago PMI is expected to decline further to a  

reading of 64.5 in February after dipping to a still-strong reading of  

65.9 in January. Other regional data already released were mixed.       

Weekly Jobless Claims for February 24 week                              

 Thursday, March 1 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:         

                 Median         Range                Feb24  Feb17  Feb10

 Weekly Claims     228k     226k to 230k                --   222k   229k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise  

by 6,000 to 228,000 in the February 24 week after a surprise decline of 

7,000 in the previous week. The four-week moving average would fall by  

only 500 in the coming week, as the 230,000 level in the January 27 week

drops out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and  

there are no revisions.                                                 

Personal Income for January (percent change)                            

 Thursday, March 1 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Jan18  Dec17  Nov17

 Income         +0.3%     -0.1% to +0.5%                --  +0.4%  +0.3%

 Spending       +0.2%     +0.2% to +0.4%                --  +0.4%  +0.8%

 Core Prices    +0.3%     +0.2% to +0.3%                --  +0.2%  +0.1%

     Comments: Personal income is expected to rise by 0.3% in December, 

as payrolls rose by 200,000, and hourly earnings rose by 0.3%, but the  

average weekly hours slipped to 34.3 hours. Current dollar PCE is       

forecast to rise by only 0.2% after stronger gains in recent month, with

durables spending soft due to a decline in auto spending. Total retail  

sales fell by 0.3% in the month and were flat excluding a 1.3% drop in  

motor vehicle sales. Retail sales excluding autos, gas, building        

materials and food services also flat, indicating underlying weakness.  

The core PCE price index is expected to post a 0.3% increase in January 

following a 0.2% gain in December, but the year/year rate would remain  

well below 2.0%, rising modestly to 1.6%.                               

Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales for February (mln units, saar)             

 Thursday, March 1                                       Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Feb18  Jan18  Dec17

 Dom Sales      12.9m    12.9m to 12.9m                 --  12.8m  13.6m

     Comments: Domestic-made vehicle sales are expected to rebound      

modestly to a 12.9 million annual rate in February after falling sharply

to a 12.8 million annual rate in January, likely due to weather factors.

Seasonal adjustment factors will add slightly less to unadjusted sales  

in February then they did in January.                                   

ISM Manufacturing Index for February                                    

 Thursday, March 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                      Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Feb18  Jan18  Dec17

 Mfg ISM         58.6     57.7 to 59.3                  --   59.1   59.3

     Comments: The ISM manufacturing index is expected to fall further  

to a reading of 58.6 in February after dipping modestly to 59.1 in      

January. Regional conditions data have been mixed.                      

Construction Spending for January (percent change)                      

 Thursday, March 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                      Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Jan18  Dec17  Nov17

 Construction   +0.3%    +0.1% to +0.6%                 --  +0.7%  +0.6%

     Comments: Construction spending is expected to rise by 0.3% in     

January. Housing starts surged in the month, suggesting private         

residential building continued its string of recent gains.              

University of Michigan Survey for February (final)                      

 Friday, March 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:        

                Median           Range              Feb18f Feb18p  Jan18

 Consumer Sent    99.5       99.0 to 100.3              --   99.9   95.7

     Comments: Analysts expect the Michigan Sentiment index to be       

revised down modestly to reading of 99.5 from the 99.9 preliminary      

estimate.                                                               

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com