US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   

upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   

weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 

median forecasts.         

Weekly Jobless Claims for August 18 week                                

 Thursday, August 23 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual:       

               Median         Range                  Aug18  Aug11  Aug04

 Weekly Claims   215k     210k to 215k                  --   214k   219k

     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise  

by 3,000 to 215,000 in the August 18 employment survey week after a     

decrease of 2,000 to 212,000 in the previous week. Claims were at a     

level of 208,000 in the July 14 employment survey week, the lowest point

in decades. The four-week moving average would fall by 500 in the coming

week as the 217,000 level in the July 21 week rolls out of the          

calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no      

revisions.                                                              

New Home Sales for July (annual rate)                                   

 Thursday, August 23 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:       

               Median         Range                  Jul18  Jun18  May18

 New Homes       649k     593k to 650k                  --   631k   666k

     Comments: New home sales are expected to rise to a 649,000 annual  

rate in July following a sharp June drop. Unadjusted sales were up 1.8% 

from a year earlier in June. Meanwhile, home supply was up 1.7%         

month/month and 10.3% year/year, so the supply is rising and should be  

more than adequate to meet demand.                                      

Durable Goods Orders for July (percent change)                          

 Friday, August 24 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:        

               Median         Range                  Jul18  Jun18  May18

 New Orders     -1.3%    -4.0% to +1.6%                 --  +0.8%  -0.3%

 Ex-Transport   +0.5%    +0.0% to +0.7%                 --  +0.2%  +0.3%

     Comments: Durable goods orders are expected to decline by 1.3% in  

July after a 0.8% gain in June. Boeing reported only 30 orders in July, 

down very sharply from 233 orders in June, so aircraft orders are likely

to retrace in the July report after a June increase. However, not all of

the June surge in Boeing orders was reflected in the durables report    

that month, so there is an upside risk to the July data. New orders     

excluding transportation are expected to rise by 0.5% after a 0.2% gain 

in the previous month.                                                  

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-372-2121; email: shikha.dave@marketnews.com

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