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US DATA: New Home Prices Cool Further With Elevated Supply

US DATA
USGlobalEM BulletFixed Income BulletsData BulletBulletMarketsEmerging Market NewsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionNorth America
  • New home sales were slightly better than expected in August at 716k (saar, cons 700k) after an upward revised 751k (initial 739k) in July.
  • It left sales -4.7% M/M after a strong 10.3% increase in July, volatile but on balance trending higher with sales about 5% higher than the 2019 average as opposed to existing home sales which are more than 25% lower.
  • It’s hard getting a sense of trend from the regional data: The southern region, by far the largest, saw sales increase 2.7% after 8.0% whilst the northeast, by far the smallest, saw -27% after 3%.
  • Relative supply remains historically elevated, with 7.8 months of supply in August. That’s down from the 7.9 in Aug’23 but is far above the 6.0 averaged in Augusts 2017-19.
  • It’s this supply backdrop that is helping bias median prices lower (-4.6% Y/Y vs 3.1% Y/Y for existing) and in turn supporting new home sales relative to existing. 
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  • New home sales were slightly better than expected in August at 716k (saar, cons 700k) after an upward revised 751k (initial 739k) in July.
  • It left sales -4.7% M/M after a strong 10.3% increase in July, volatile but on balance trending higher with sales about 5% higher than the 2019 average as opposed to existing home sales which are more than 25% lower.
  • It’s hard getting a sense of trend from the regional data: The southern region, by far the largest, saw sales increase 2.7% after 8.0% whilst the northeast, by far the smallest, saw -27% after 3%.
  • Relative supply remains historically elevated, with 7.8 months of supply in August. That’s down from the 7.9 in Aug’23 but is far above the 6.0 averaged in Augusts 2017-19.
  • It’s this supply backdrop that is helping bias median prices lower (-4.6% Y/Y vs 3.1% Y/Y for existing) and in turn supporting new home sales relative to existing.